Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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646 FXUS64 KCRP 202307 CCA AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 607 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 401 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 The center of Alberto has dissipated over inland Mexico this afternoon. Across the area, plentiful moisture in association to this system continues to lead to scattered showers with some isolated embedded thunderstorms. Most of the rain has transitioned into western portions of the CWA, though a few showers have continued to develop over the coastal waters. A low to medium chance of showers and storms will remain in the forecast through Friday followed by drier conditions into Friday night as ridging aloft begins to take a hold from the east. Although rainfall accumulations should generally stay below an inch through the period, localized flooding from the rainfall may continue through tomorrow along portions of the Coastal Bend as some areas have already seen between 7-11" of rain over the past 48 hours. The threat of coastal flooding remains really high through the high tide cycles tonight and Friday, with another round of 2 to almost 4 feet inundation possible along area beaches. Wave heights will be slow to subside, which may result in continuous hazardous marine conditions and a slow return of the tides to normal levels. The risk for rip currents also remains High through Friday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 401 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Key Messages: - Potential disturbance in the Gulf this weekend - Dangerous heat returns early next week A broad area of low pressure is forecasted to form in the Gulf by Saturday. NHC has a 50% chance of development into a tropical system over the next 7 days for this disturbance. We will continue to monitor this system over the next few days for potential development, so be sure to check back for future updates. Similar conditions to earlier this week can be expected as we head into this weekend. The presence of left over moisture and energy from Alberto will give way to showers and thunderstorms that will be isolated to scattered in nature. They will generally take place during the day and generally subsiding overnight. This could potentially add a couple of inches on top of our rainfall totals for this event due to the copious amounts of moisture available (2.3-2.5 inch PWATS). As Alberto fully dissipates precipitation chances will generally decrease. A ridge of high pressure will build over the area early next week, but a low chance will still exist through the end of the week likely due to the arrival of the sea breeze each day. Unfortunately, with high pressure overhead, expect the threat for dangerous heat conditions to return. Heat index values will be around 110-114 through the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 554 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 VFR conditions are currently prevailing across the region. However, brief MVFR ceilings/vis will be possible with any passing shower or thunderstorm. Showers and storms will continue through the next several hours. Isolated activity may continue through the night but left out a mention of VCTS, generally after midnight, as confidence is too low. Breezy winds will gradually weaken through the evening hours. Brief MVFR ceilings may be possible at ALI/COT/LRD around sunrise. Gusty east-southeasterly winds return through the morning hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 401 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through late tonight for the bays, and through early Friday morning across the Gulf waters. The seas will be slow to subside, and may require the Advisory to be extended. Scattered showers will remain in the forecast through the weekend. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are possible this weekend as seas continue to subside. Onshore flow becomes more weak to moderate by early next week and remains at these levels through at least mid week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 79 90 77 90 / 50 40 30 50 Victoria 75 89 73 92 / 30 50 10 20 Laredo 77 91 75 91 / 50 50 20 50 Alice 76 91 74 92 / 40 40 20 50 Rockport 81 92 80 92 / 50 40 30 40 Cotulla 77 93 76 95 / 30 30 10 20 Kingsville 77 91 75 90 / 50 40 30 60 Navy Corpus 82 89 82 90 / 50 50 30 50 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ245-342>345- 347-442-443-447. High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for TXZ345-442- 443-447. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ231-232-236- 237. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for GMZ250-255-270- 275. && $$ SHORT TERM...ANM LONG TERM....NP AVIATION...TC/95