Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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335 FXUS64 KCRP 191553 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1053 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1035 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 The tropical disturbance out over the southwestern Gulf is now Tropical Storm Alberto. Alberto`s latest position is approximately, 295 Miles south-southeast of Brownsville moving west at 9 MPH. Winds are sustained at 40 MPH with gusts up to around 50 MPH. Heavy Precipitation is ongoing and we have seen rainfall rates up to around 4.5 in/hr observed by one of our Meteorologists. As for rainfall amounts, 4-8 inches area-wide with localized isolated amounts up to 10 inches around the southern Coastal Bend is still possible today through Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 329 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Today is the main day of action for PTC1. We`re watching a large area of rain moving toward the coast early this morning and will expect this to be in place much of the day. Still quite a bit of spread in rainfall amounts among the guidance, and there will no doubt be a lot of spread in realized rainfall totals with bands setting up over some areas and not others. We`re still expecting between 8 and 10 inches of rain in the southern Coastal Bend with some higher amounts closer to 15 inches possible under the persistent bands. Elsewhere an area wide 4 to 8 inches is anticipated. With PWAT values expected to approach 3 inches this morning, rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour would be likely. These rates can quickly lead to ponding and flash flooding, thus the flood watch in effect through mid-day tomorrow. The circulation around this disturbance remains very broad and not well defined. Strong winds spread north and northeastward a very impressive 360 miles from the center. Have noted winds gusting as high as 32 knots overnight among the sparse observations. It`s likely higher gusts are occurring farther offshore within the convection. We could see wind gusts as high as 50 miles per hour over coastal counties today with higher gusts over the waters. Coastal flooding is ongoing with numerous reports of water in dunes and over roadways all along the coast. Expect this to continue through at least Thursday. Have extended the Coastal Flood warning through 00Z Friday as guidance indicates high tide times to not fall below 2 feet until then. The Rip current risk has also been extended through mid-day Friday with high long period swells being slow to subside. Conditions will improve Thursday as the circulation center shifts west of the area. Rain chances decrease, but will not drop completely as deep moisture remains high over the area and a generally unsettled pattern continues. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 329 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 After a relative lull in rain chances Friday, we could see another increase in rain chances for the weekend as yet another weakness passes south of our area PWAT values are considerably lower than current, but still above normal in the 2-2.5" range. Expect the heaviest rains to fall south of us with this system, but depending on how much rain we get today and tomorrow, it may not take much to be a further concern into the weekend. Early next week looks to have another down trend in rainfall probabilities as upper level ridging shifts more over our region. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 612 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Rain bands from Potential Tropical Cyclone One have arrived in South Texas. Those across the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads will see winds increasing and heavy rainfall this morning. MVFR to IFR conditions are expected, with LIFR visibility and ceilings possible in and around some of the heaviest showers. Conditions will continue to deteriorate through the day from east to west, with all terminals experiencing heavy rainfall with high rainfall rates. Winds will gust to around 40 knots along the coast and around 30 knots over the Brush Country throughout the day today and into tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 329 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Dangerous marine conditions continue today with gale force wind gusts expected through the day. With a very large wind field, wave heights are expected to build to as high as 20 feet in the offshore waters. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are ongoing and will persist through this afternoon and into the overnight period as well. Winds will begin to subside Thursday with a moderate southeasterly wind into the weekend. Seas will be slow to subside, but should fall below 7 feet by late Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 85 80 89 78 / 100 90 90 60 Victoria 81 77 88 75 / 100 70 70 20 Laredo 85 76 87 77 / 90 100 80 60 Alice 83 78 89 75 / 100 90 90 50 Rockport 88 82 91 82 / 100 90 80 60 Cotulla 85 76 89 77 / 90 90 60 30 Kingsville 84 78 87 77 / 100 100 90 60 Navy Corpus 87 83 90 82 / 100 100 90 80 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ242>247-342>347-442-443-447. Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for TXZ229>234-239>247- 342>347-442-443-447. Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ245-342>345- 347-442-443-447. High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for TXZ345-442- 443-447. GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275. && $$ SHORT TERM...BF/80 LONG TERM....PH AVIATION...LS