578
FXUS64 KCRP 101022
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
522 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Key Messages:

- Minor to moderate heat-related impacts are expected today and
Tuesday across South Texas.

- Low to medium (20-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Highs will be 2-4 degrees cooler across the Rio Grande Plains and
Brush Country today and Tuesday. This is due to mid level
temperatures being a few degrees cooler with decreasing thickness
values. Eastern portions of S TX will generally see similar highs
each day. Models also show dewpoints being a couple of degrees
lower, thus allowing lows to drop into the mid 70s across the
interior portions of S TX tonight. The cooler temperatures and
dewpoints will lead to lower Heat Index values each afternoon. Most
locations are expected to remain below 107 heat index. A few places
could briefly approach 110 across the southern Coastal Bend.

Models continue to indicate that a baggy upper level trough
currently along the Rio Grande and W TX, will shift east across the
region through the day. Embedded short waves will provide upper
support for convection, but models are having a hard time with
timing and location of the short waves. This is leading to a wide
range of where and how much rain moves into or develops across S TX.
Convection currently north of Del Rio, could produce an outflow
boundary that reaches S TX later this morning. If CIN values have
decreased sufficiently by then, the boundary may interact with 2
inch PWATs to produce showers and thunderstorms. Additional
outflow boundaries could also lead to convection through the day.
Due to uncertainty on timing and location of convection for today,
have broadbrushed PoPs across S TX with a low to medium (20-30%)
chance of showers and thunderstorms.

By tonight into Tuesday, the upper trough will shift east of the
area leading to a northwest flow aloft across S TX. Models prog
embedded short waves to track south to southeast across the
region. Models also show less available moisture, thus rain
chances are low (10-20%) for tonight and Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Key Messages:

- Minor to moderate risk of heat-related impacts Tuesday through
Friday, increasing to moderate to major this weekend

- Increased rain chances (20-35%) late Tuesday night through
Wednesday

An amplified mid-level shortwave will move from North Texas into
South Texas Tuesday night through Wednesday. This is a noticeable
change southwestward than previous runs, putting South Texas in a
more favorable environment for showers and thunderstorms. Model
guidance is in good agreement with PWAT values increasing over 2.0"
(>75th percentile) interacting with positive vorticity advection
aloft and residual outflow boundaries from nearby storms. Due to
these reasons, have increased PoPs to 20-35% from convection moving
over the Hill Country southward into South Texas late Tuesday night
with additional development during the day on Wednesday. Greatest
rain chances will lie over the Victoria Crossroads where instability
is greatest (NAM near 2000 J/kg CAPE) and the cap is weakest.

The shortwave will move south of us Thursday into Thursday night and
lead to ridging Friday through the weekend as the center of high
pressure moves from the southern Great Plains to the SE CONUS;
whereas a mid-level low or inverted trough positions over the Gulf
of Mexico. Right now, rain chances late in the week remain over the
Gulf waters but will closely monitor for any changes of the mid-
level flow.

Fortunately, 1000-700mb temperatures will remain near normal through
the work week and lead to generally minor to moderate heat-related
impacts (instead of the major to extreme like we`ve had to deal with
recently). Heat index values are expected to peak around 105 through
the week with closer to 110 on Sunday. Probabilities of heat index
values 110 or greater has dramatically decreased, in fact the 100
member ensemble of long range ensembles (LREF) consisting of GEFS,
GEPS, and ENS contains a less than 5% probability of reaching 110
any day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

A line of storms northwest of COT, may reach COT between 11-12Z
this morning and, if it holds together long enough, it could reach
LRD around 12-14Z. Models have not been in agreement with
convection across S TX for today. Most show convection in the
area, but disagree on where and when. A series of upper
disturbances will lead to a low to medium chance of storms off and
on today with COT, LRD and VCT having the best chance of storms.
Have included TSRAs in TEMPOs for these TAF sites. Chances are
lower for ALI and CRP, thus have included VCTS for these two
sites. There is a low chance tonight, but will not mention in the
TAFs at this time. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to
prevail through the TAF period with brief MVFR conditions by early
Tuesday morning, mainly for VCT and ALI.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected each afternoon with
winds decreasing to weaker levels overnight into the morning hours.
There is a low to medium chance for showers and thunderstorms
today through Tuesday, then a low chance daily the rest of the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    95  78  94  78 /  30  20  20  10
Victoria          95  75  94  74 /  30  20  20  30
Laredo            99  78 101  77 /  30  20   0  10
Alice             97  75  97  75 /  20  20  20  10
Rockport          92  80  93  80 /  30  10  20  10
Cotulla           97  78 100  77 /  30  20   0  30
Kingsville        96  76  96  77 /  20  20  20  10
Navy Corpus       91  81  91  82 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....EMF
AVIATION...TE/81