Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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612 FXUS64 KCRP 051759 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1259 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 A line of showers and thunderstorms is currently making its way across portions of the Victoria Crossroads and northern Coastal Bend. Strong winds have been reported with this activity with wind gusts up to 50 knots reported at Matagorda Bay. A Special Marine Warning is in effect for the northern bays and nearshore waters, and an extension farther southward is expected later on if storms maintain their strength. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible (20% chance) later this afternoon across the west before transitioning eastward through the evening in response to a passing mid-level disturbance. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 234 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Key Messages: - Marginal Risk of Severe Storms Through This Evening - Dangerous Heat Continues Today There is a lot of uncertainty in regards to convection across the region today. Currently, there is a MCS surging south near the TX/LA border. This activity will continue south-southeast as a shortwave rounds the eastern periphery of the ridge. Latest CAM drags a decaying line of storms through the Victoria Crossroads by mid day. This activity should weaken as it moves south into a more stable environment. This MCS will kick an outflow out across Central Texas this afternoon. Additional activity will likely develop along this lingering boundary as a ribbon of H5 vorticity elongates across the state. Convection that does form will drift south through the afternoon and evening hours before fizzling out. CAPES from 3000-4000 J/kg, ~1500 J/kg DCAPE, and steep lapse rates will promote storms capable of producing damaging winds and large hail. In addition to our convective threat, dangerous heat looks to continue across South Texas today. Temps today will climb into the low 90s along the coast to around 105 out west. High dewpts and warm temps will allow heat indices to climb into the 110-120 range this afternoon. An Excessive Heat Warning is now in effect for the Southern Coastal Bend and Northern Brush Country with a Heat Advisory in effect everywhere else, except for the barrier islands. With that said, it`s possible that we don`t see criteria met across the Victoria Crossroads depending on the timing of convection today. By Thursday, upper level ridging begins to build in, promoting rain-free conditions. Another round of Heat Advisories appears likely. Lastly, a Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect through 1 PM this afternoon. Tide levels are currently running just over 1 foot above normal and will likely remain elevated through high tide as 7-9s swells persist. The High Risk of Rip Currents will remain in effect through this evening. Southeasterly winds will weaken this evening, which should bring our risk down to moderate. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 234 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Ridging builds in overhead late in the work week. Increased subsidence will hinder any rain chances through the weekend. By late this weekend, the ridge begins to weaken as a trough dives south across the Midwest. This will open the door for rain chances to return to the region on Monday. It`s towards the end of the forecast period but there are some signs of a rare June front arriving next week. Slightly drier air mixing in while allow for some "relief" from our prolonged heat episode. Heat indices will settle into the 105-109 range which promotes a moderate to major risk of heat- related impacts. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 A mixture of MVFR/VFR conditions is ongoing across area terminals. A line of showers and thunderstorms is currently exiting the VCT site as it shifts to the south and over the northern Coastal Bend. Impacts across the rest of the terminals is unlikely at the moment, but may need to make some edits if the line holds its strength as it extends southwestward. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible later this afternoon, impacting first the western sites and then shifting eastward through the evening. Periods of MVFR conditions will persist tonight through Thursday morning. Winds will be gusty out of the northeast with the current band of storms, but in general out of the east and south east through the rest of the cycle. Winds are forecast to decouple overnight and become light and variable. && .MARINE... Issued at 234 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through 7 AM for the bays and 1 PM for the coastal waters. While winds will gradually weaken, seas will remain elevated through mid day. A weak to moderate onshore flow will then continue as we head into next week. There is a low chance of showers and storms over the offshore waters through the weekend. Chances begin to increase early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 96 80 97 78 / 20 20 10 0 Victoria 95 76 97 75 / 40 20 10 0 Laredo 104 79 103 79 / 10 20 10 10 Alice 102 79 100 76 / 20 20 10 0 Rockport 92 81 93 80 / 30 20 10 0 Cotulla 105 80 102 78 / 20 20 0 0 Kingsville 102 80 98 77 / 20 20 10 0 Navy Corpus 91 82 92 81 / 30 20 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ229>231-241>243. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ232>234-239-240- 244>247-342>344-346-347. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ345- 442-443-447. High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ345-442- 443-447. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ250- 255-270-275. && $$ SHORT TERM...TC/95 LONG TERM....TC/95 AVIATION...ANM/88