Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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574 FXUS64 KCRP 171724 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1224 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 207 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Key Messages: - Key a close eye on the Tropics Overall, today will be hot and muggy with scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly along the coast and over the gulf waters as gulf moisture begins to surge into the region. Radar was already picking up scattered showers along the coast reflective of the 2 inch PWAT lurking just off the coast. Heat Indices will range from 105 to 109. Winds will steadily increase over the marine areas as the pressure gradient tightens from the approaching gulf disturbance. Have been observing occasional gusts near 25 knots already this morning. Have hoisted SCA`s for this afternoon when winds should be more steady above 20 knots, but this may need to be initiated sooner if observations indicate. Due to increasing winds and swell period over 9 seconds expect a high risk of rip currents to begin tonight with steadily increasing water levels, which could approach advisory thresholds overnight. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 207 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Key Messages: - Tropical development probability holding at 70% - Development likely. - Heavy rain potential increasing - Moderate ERO for Wednesday/Wednesday night. - Moderate to high chance of coastal flooding and dangerous rip currents by early to mid-week. We are continuing to monitor for potential tropical development in the western Gulf of Mexico this week. NHC puts the probability of development at 60% in 48 hours and 70% for the 7 day period. There is still considerable uncertainty with how this evolves and where exactly landfall would be, but regardless of this, we are most likely to be on the wet side of this system with several inches of rain possible Tuesday through the end of the week. P-ETSS guidance indicates the potential for 3FT MSL which would equate to around 2FT of inundation Wednesday into Thursday. This would potentially warrant a coastal flood warning down the road. Circling back around to rainfall, the amount of moisture pushing into Texas is impressive with PWAT values on a couple of models topping out around 3" - for context, the CRP PWAT climatology (from SPC`s website) indicates 3" is an all-time record value, with the second highest at 2.86. QPF maxs have drifted back toward our forecast area for the mid-week period, and a widespread heavy rain event is looking more likely. An area average 3-5 inches seems reasonable at this point with more like 5-8 inches near the coast. Isolated amounts even higher than this are possible within some of the banding features. The period with the greatest potential for heavy rain looks to be Tuesday night through Wednesday night at this time. Flash flooding and river flooding will be a growing concern. In terms of the excessive rainfall outlooks, we have a slight risk for Tuesday/Tuesday night along the coast. For Wednesday/Wednesday Night, eastern and northern portions of the area are in a moderate risk with a slight risk over the rest of the area. While not the greatest concern with this system, the wind field does look to spread pretty far north of the center and we could see winds of 30kts with gusts to around 40 kts (~35G45mph) over the waters and areas near the coast. As mentioned, there is still plenty of uncertainty in how this evolves. All of the parameters mentioned above could change with time, so continue to monitor the latest forecasts and outlooks. Conditions improve late in the week as the disturbance moves west of the area. One other thing to note - if the current expectations hold, temperatures will be well below normal mid-week, and only rebound slightly late in the week. High temperatures are currently forecast in the 80s for Wednesday/Thursday, sneaking back up into the lower 90s for late in the week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Mostly VFR CIGs and VSBYs through the TAF period, with brief periods of MVFR, possibly IFR, due to showers and thunderstorms. There has been isolated weak showers today that are expected to wane this evening. Rain chances pickup over night into Tuesday, becoming sct to num across the ALI, CRP and VCT areas through Tuesday afternoon. E-SE winds are expected to gust up to 20-28 knots this afternoon and evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 244 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Onshore winds will becoming moderate to strong this afternoon and Tonight with SCAs likely. Strong onshore winds expected to develop Tuesday and continue through Thursday. Occasional gusts to gale force will be possible Wednesday through Thursday. Wave heights are expected to increase to 8-13 feet across the coastal waters this week, especially if a tropical depression or tropical storm develops in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center has a high, 70% chance of development in the next 7 days. Regardless of tropical development, deep moisture will move into the area resulting in a 50-90% chance of showers and thunderstorms through the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 93 79 91 77 / 30 30 60 70 Victoria 92 76 89 74 / 50 10 50 50 Laredo 101 78 98 77 / 0 0 20 20 Alice 97 76 93 75 / 20 10 50 50 Rockport 93 82 91 79 / 50 40 70 70 Cotulla 102 79 99 78 / 0 0 10 10 Kingsville 96 78 91 76 / 30 20 60 60 Navy Corpus 91 83 90 80 / 50 50 70 80 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for TXZ245-342>345-347-442-443-447. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....PH AVIATION...TE/81