333
FXUS61 KCTP 220530
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
130 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Heat will peak this weekend. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will occur again Saturday afternoon and evening.
The showers and storms will be more numerous on Sunday as a
cold front pushes into the Commonwealth and gusty winds along
with heavy rain may accompany these slow moving storms. Some
relief from the heat and humidity is expected Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
Showers and a few ltg strikes left over the middle Susq, but
the rest of the area is dry. Those few returns are likely the
last gasp for tonight. Tweaks made to the near term
temp/dew/sky trends, but nothing substantial. Stability and some
clearing will allow some fog to form, mainly in the areas that
got rain, and mainly in the valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Expect the low to mid level west to southwesterly flow to
freshen over the upcoming weekend which will accentuate the
already high temperatures/hot conditions with some
downslope/adiabatic warming of the air.

Heat builds to a crescendo Saturday through Sunday with daytime
heat indices likely to eclipse 100F both days over the far
south and southeast, and nighttime lows peaking Sat night/Sunday
morning in the mid to upper 70s in these areas.

In the midst of the ongoing Heat Advisory, it is worth noting
that the experimental HeatRisk product paints the highest risk
levels of the week occurring on Saturday and Sunday. If you have
plans to do anything outside, plan to drink plenty of water and
have options for getting relief from the heat.

As the upper ridge breaks down and deep layer shear values
trend higher, a more organized severe t-storm threat may develop
this weekend. SPC has introduced MRGL risk outlooks for both
Saturday and Sunday. Speaking anecdotally from ~20 years
experience, prolonged periods of heat in CPA are often broken by
at least a semi-organized convective t-storm event. That being
said, we could envision a higher SWO risk level in the cards.

The heat advisory continues through Saturday and will need to
be extended for the southeast half of central PA on Sunday.
It`s possible local heat indices could reach warning criteria
~105F in parts of the middle and lower Susquehanna Valley this
weekend and will message that in the updated NPW and DSS
briefing.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
No substantial changes will be forthcoming with the late evening
update. Frontal passage mid-week should knock back the return of
the heat.

Prev...
Upper ridge continue to flatten Saturday night and Sunday with
the warmest overnight temperatures of this heat episode
expected into Sunday morning. A round of showers/tsra will
accompany this flattening as a cold front crosses central PA
Sunday afternoon through Monday morning, but one more day of
dangerous heat is expected over the southeast third of central
PA Sunday afternoon with heat indices approaching or exceeding
100F. We`ll be extending the Heat Advisory through Sunday
evening for the Lower Susq River Valley as a result.

Behind the cold front, we expect still warm but much less humid
conditions to arrive by Monday and last into Tuesday, as
dewpoints drop into the 50s. This temporary relief from the heat
will give way to another surge of heat and humidity for late
Tuesday through Wednesday before a more refreshing air mass
arrives for Thursday and Friday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Patchy fog has developed across the northern half of the area
and MVFR visibilities are being reported at BFD as of 05Z. The
fog will likely make it to IPT in the next few hours and could
potentially push as far south as UNV. Most guidance suggests
that visibilities at sites that see fog will remain at 3 miles
or above, but there could be brief periods of IFR.

VFR conditions will prevail once the fog dissipates with only
very brief restrictions possible from an isolated shower or
thunderstorm in the afternoon. While any rain that develops will
likely be accompanied by thunder, have held off on including
thunder in any TAFs until timing of the storms becomes more
clear. Today will be the warmest day of this stretch for most
locations and pilots can expect high density altitude
conditions.

Outlook...

Sun...Restrictions will be possible with thunderstorms in the
afternoon. Continued heat will present density altitude
concerns.

Mon...Predominantly VFR, with brief restrictions possible in
scattered SHRA/TSRA as a cold front crosses the area.

Tues...VFR, no sig wx expected.

Wed...Restrictions possible in thunderstorms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A heat wave will continue through the weekend with near-record
temperatures forecast in some locations Saturday and Sunday.

Daily record highs for Saturday June 22 and Sunday June 23:

6/226/23
State College 93 (1988)91 (1966)
Harrisburg 97 (1988)97 (1965)
Williamsport97 (1988)94 (1923)
Altoona 91 (2022)90 (1994)
Bradford 93 (2022)86 (2013)

The following records have been set during this stretch of heat:

BFD:
* A record high temperature of 89 degrees was tied at Bradford
  on Friday June 21st, tying the record set in 2022.
* A record high temperature of 90 degrees was set at Bradford on
  Thursday June 20th breaking the old record of 88 degrees set
  in 2012.
* A record high temperature of 88 degrees was set at Bradford on
  Wednesday June 19, breaking the old record of 87 degrees set
  in 1987.

IPT:
* A record high temperature of 98 degrees was set at
  Williamsport on Friday June 21st, breaking the old record of
  97 degrees set in 1923 and tied in 1933.

Highest Max Temperatures for Central Pennsylvania Observing
sites for June (date of occurrence is in parentheses:

State College 96 in 1952 (26th) and 1933 (29th)
Harrisburg 100 in 1966 (27th), 1952 (26th), and 1934 (29th)
Williamsport 104 in 1925 (5th)
Altoona 97 in 1971 (28th) and 1953 (21st)
Bradford 93 in 2022 (22nd)

Longest run of consecutive days with max temp >=90 in June:

State College 6 (24-29th 1966)   /current streak=0/
Harrisburg 10* (19-28th 1943) /current streak=5/
Williamsport 9 (18-26th 1923)   /current streak=5/
Altoona 8 (13-20th 1994)   /current streak=5/
Bradford        1 (20th 2024)      /current streak=0/

*Harrisburg had a run of 11 days with temperatures greater than
 90 degrees that started on 26th and ended on July 6th in 1901.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-024>027-033>035-037-041-042-045-046.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for PAZ028-036-049>053-
056>059-063>066.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Banghoff
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Lambert
LONG TERM...DeVoir
AVIATION...Banghoff/Bauco
CLIMATE...Evans/Steinbugl/Colbert