Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA
Issued by NWS State College, PA
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900 FXUS61 KCTP 092101 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 501 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... *We will see spotty showers or thundershowers across the northern and western highlands this evening ahead of a reinforcing shot of cooler air *This reinforcing shot of cooler air will keep highs 5 to 15F below average on Monday. *Temperatures will be on the rise through the end of the week as high pressure brings a stretch of rain-free weather with low humidity, light winds, and plenty of sunshine. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/... An approaching vort max is beginning to generate spotty showers across the northern and western PA as the evening begins, and this activity should continue to push southeastward in the 5-11PM timeframe before dissipating overnight. && .SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A reinforcing shot of cold air will be ushered in overnight behind a secondary cold front, allowing temperatures to drop into the upper 40s in the northern tier and the upper 50s in the southeast. On Monday, the approach of a potent shortwave aloft will support more clouds than sun and isolated showers or sprinkles across the northern tier. Monday will be the coldest day of the week as temperatures struggle to make it out of the 50s in the northern tier. High temperatures will be -5F to -15F compared to average for this time of year. Another chilly night is in store for Monday night with lows ranging from the mid 40s at higher elevations in the Laurel Highlands and northwest mountains to mid 50s in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Upper level troughiness over the northeastern United States will keep temperatures below normal through Wednesday. Tuesday and Wednesday do look dry as a lack of moisture will make it difficult for showers to form, despite the upper level low overhead. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Around this date last year wet went from being very dry to wet. The last few months have been quite wet across much of central PA. Now it looks we will go from wet to dry, again just about one year to date. After a few chilly days, mainly Monday, rather warm temperatures are expected on Thursday into Friday. However, dewpoints not fcst very much above 60 degrees, so humidity levels will not change the apparent temperature much. Next chance of showers and storms will be Friday, as a cold front drops southeast. Not outlook for anything at this point, height falls not all that much, and moisture limited. High pressure builds in behind the front for a dry weekend. Temperatures will be cooler again, but more typical for this time of year. && .AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... All TAF sites are VFR as of 18z Sun. Expect continued fair weather cu with bases near 5000 ft and wind gusts up to 25 kts from 290-310 deg this afternoon. An approaching vort max this evening will bring a chance for showers and thundershowers across the northern tier of PA mainly from 22z Sun to 03z Mon, potentially impacting BFD. A secondary sfc cold front will bring a reinforcing shot of cooler air and considerable cloudiness late tonight into Monday. There is a high chance (~90%) that ceilings over the western highlands (BFD, JST) will degrade to at least MVFR by daybreak Monday, with a ~40-50% chance of IFR ceilings. Restrictions will likely last through much of the day Monday. Farther to the south and east, the central mtns (AOO, UNV, IPT) could see a period of MVFR cigs, while the Lower Susq Valley (MDT, LNS) should remain predominantly VFR through the TAF period. Outlook... Mon...Spotty showers and MVFR cigs likely, mainly north. Tue-Thu...Predominantly VFR w/ no sig wx expected. Fri...Restrictions poss with if afternoon/evening convection develops. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evanego/Colbert NEAR TERM...Evanego/Colbert SHORT TERM...Banghoff/Colbert LONG TERM...Martin AVIATION...Guseman/Evanego