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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA
Issued by NWS State College, PA
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465 FXUS61 KCTP 140711 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 311 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will pass off of the Mid Atlantic coast today, as a cold front pushes into the Great Lakes. This front will cross Pennsylvania on Friday, followed by Canadian high pressure building in for this weekend. An anomalous subtropical ridge is likely to build over the East Coast next week, bringing increased heat and humidity. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The few showers that developed earlier this evening across the southeast have dissipated and mainly dry conditions are expected into the early morning. Some patchy fog could develop overnight, mainly across the eastern half of central PA with mainly clear skies, light winds, and increasing dew points. High clouds will begin working their way into the northwest overnight ahead of an approaching trough. The cloud cover will begin to thicken towards sunrise and a few showers will be possible as well, though most of the rain should hold off until the late morning. Temperatures overnight will range from the low 60s across the northern and western mountains, to the upper 60s farther to the southeast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Model guidance pushes the upper trough and associated cold front through Central PA Friday, accompanied by a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. A couple of shortwaves will be moving through the larger trough, with the first moving into the northern half of the area during the late morning/early afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will move into the northwest around noon and will spread southeastward with the cold front. As they progress through the area, they will enter an increasingly unstable environment, with most guidance showing 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE developing across the southeastern half of the region. Deep layer shear of 40 to 50 knots will support some organization and a few severe storms will be possible. The main threat looks to be damaging winds with steep low level lapse rates and fairly deep boundary layer mixing, though hail will be possible as well. Later in the afternoon, mid level flow begins to increase across the Lower Susquehanna Valley as a second shortwave moves in from the west. This will allow for more storm development into the evening. Strong large scale forcing ahead of the upper trough and seasonably high pwats support POPs in the 60-80pct range Friday over most of Central PA. Latest ensemble plumes indicate just a few tenths of an inch rainfall for most locations, with isolated 1-2+" amounts in any storms. Any evening showers/tsra over the southeast counties should end shortly after sunset Friday, as the cold front exits the state. High pressure building in behind the front should bring clearing skies and cooler air Friday night. Abundant sunshine and seasonal temps are expected Saturday, as the high pressure system and associated low-pwat air mass builds into the region. The center of high is progged to pass over Central PA Saturday night, resulting in favorable conditions for radiational cooling and low temperatures in the 40s and low 50s. This will be the last time we see temperatures in the 40s in PA for the foreseeable future... && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... An extended period of above average temperatures is increasingly likely as a large ridge builds across the eastern US. This will allow for MaxTs and MinTs +10 to +15F above climatology for the middle of June. Model differences have become slightly better resolved with respect to the strength of the ridge, outlining higher confidence of abnormally warm temperatures extending northward into PA. Less humid conditions on Monday will bring heat index values into the mid-to-upper 90s, with some valley locations across central/southern PA pushing close to the 100F mark. Tuesday will likely be the warmest day with most guidance showing a 597+ dm ridge centered over or just to the east of the area. With the surface high off to the east, southerly flow will usher in higher dew points that will allow for heat index values to reach 100-105 degrees over a large portion of the area. Humid conditions will continue into Wednesday and Thursday with anomalously warm conditions continuing into the end of the week. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A cold front over the Lower Great Lakes early this morning will drift southeast across Central PA during the afternoon and early evening hours. A few bands of showers and embedded TSRA will occur in advance and along this airmass boundary with periods of MVFR and possibly brief IFR VSBY and CIGS (30 percent chance of brief IFR occurrence) in the more intense TSRA. Brief wind gusts AOA 40 kts area also possible, along with some isolated instances of hail. Showers and storms work to the east and south on Friday, with some potential for gusty winds with storms. This will depend on the amount heating, timing of the activity, and the amount of phasing with the lee side trough. Showers and storms are expected to taper off from late this afternoon (NW Mtns) into the evening (SE Airfields including KMDT and KLNS). A second round of enhanced upper level forcing may slow the front and delay the end to the convection by a few hours across the far south and east. Employed a TEMPO group later today to cover any storms with brief gusty winds. A splendid and seasonably warm weekend is on tap with abundant sunshine and dewpoints in the mid 40s to lower 50s as drier air builds into the region from the north. Winds will be northerly and mainly under 10 KTS on Saturday before shifting to the south and southeast on Sunday. Outlook... Sat-Sun...Predominantly VFR. Mon and Tue...Mainly VFR. Isolated afternoon/evening TSRA possible, with any restrictions brief in nature. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald/Evanego NEAR TERM...Evanego/Bauco SHORT TERM...Evanego/Bauco LONG TERM...Bauco/NPB AVIATION...Lambert/Martin