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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA
Issued by NWS State College, PA
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718 FXUS61 KCTP 250123 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 923 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build overhead tonight bringing a clear and cool summer night. Heat will build again by Wednesday leading to a chance of thunderstorms by late in the day and Wednesday night as a cold front passes. Dry weather on Thursday and Friday will be followed by another cold front late Saturday or early Sunday of next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... We are starting to stabilize/stratify and the wind is also starting to diminish. The upper trough is swinging to the east and should allow clearing to complete. We`re still expecting fog and perhaps some lower clouds to form in cooler spots (esp the NW mtns) tonight. The temps are on track. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The center of high pressure moves off of the Mid Atlantic coast Tuesday, resulting in a warmer return southwest flow. Still, sfc dewpoints will remain in the 50s, making higher temperatures still seem tolerable. Ensemble mean 850mb temps rising to near 17C supports highs mostly in the 80s, to near 90F in the Lower Susq Valley. A warm front lifting through the Eastern Grt Lks may result in a shower or tsra Tuesday night, mainly over the NW Mtns. Surging PWATs and falling heights ahead of an upstream cold front will bring a much better chance of widespread showers/tsra Wednesday afternoon. Latest guidance suggests shower/thunderstorm chances hold off until late Wednesday afternoon or evening for most of central pa. A ribbon of relatively strong mid level winds, combined moderate instability, suggests organized convection and locally severe weather is possible Wed PM. Latest ensemble plumes indicates most likely aerial average rainfall Wed will be around a half inch. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Showers and storms will gradually exit to the the southeast on Wednesday night as high pressure builds in. The midweek cold front will reset the cycle similar to what today`s cold front will do and usher in a similar stretch as Monday & Tuesday. Thursday and Friday will consist of about 48 hours of lower dewpoints, temperatures closer to average for this time of year, and plenty of sunshine. Afternoon highs in the 70s and 80s, overnight lows in the 50s and 60s (perhaps even upper 40s in the northern mountains Friday morning), and dewpoints below 60F will feel especially good with the persistent stretch of heat. As high pressure shifts to the east on Friday, southerly flow will support increasing temperatures and moisture into the weekend. The chance for showers and storms will also ramp up Saturday as a warm front lifts across the region. By Sunday, a trailing cold front will bring additional showers and thunderstorms and usher in another cooler stretch for the start of July. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mainly VFR conds continue tonight and Tuesday. Evening breezes will decrease after sunset and remain light on Tuesday. Patchy fog is possible late tonight into early Tuesday in NW PA, including a low chance of vsby restrictions at BFD. Outlook... Tue...VFR, no sig wx expected. Wed...Restrictions possible in TSRA. Thu...AM SHRA/TSRA with restrictions possible, drying out late. Fri...Mainly VFR. Sat...Restrictions possible in TSRA/SHRA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Banghoff AVIATION...Colbert/Bauco