427
FNUS28 KWNS 162102
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Valid 181200Z - 241200Z

Mid-level troughing is expected to persist over much of the western
CONUS through the extended forecast period. At the same time,
ridging is expected to build over the central and eastern parts of
the country keeping the upper-level pattern relatively stagnant. By
midweek, a mid-level low associated with broader troughing over the
West will eject over the northern Rockies/Plains. Strong surface
winds are expected near a deepening low and cold front, but
widespread wetting rainfall is also expected. This pattern will
continue later in the week and into next weekend as a second trough
is forecast to eject over the central and southern Plains. While
strong winds are again expected, area fuels are also likely to be
tempered by rainfall. Thus, fire-weather concerns appear modest
through the next 7 days.

...Plains D3/Wed-D6/Sat...
As the aforementioned troughing shifts eastward, several more
prominent impulses will move over the Plains D3/Wed and D6/Sat.
Strong lee cyclogenesis should accompany each of these upper-level
troughs, bolstering surface winds (20-25 mph) over much of the
Plains through the week and early weekend. However, ongoing moisture
return will support only modestly low diurnal RH values, with
widespread wetting rainfall also likely ahead of strong cold fronts
associated with the deepening surface lows. This should temper area
fuels, and casts significant uncertainty on the areal/temporal
overlap of dry and windy conditions. While some risk for elevated
fire-weather conditions is possible over parts of the southern and
central High Plains, confidence remains too low to introduce
probabilities.

..Lyons.. 09/16/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$