417
FNUS28 KWNS 242050
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Valid 261200Z - 021200Z

Confidence in critical fire weather conditions remains limited
through the second half of the work week and into the upcoming
weekend. However, at least low-end fire concerns are expected to
persist across parts of the Great Basin.

...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - northern Great Basin...
Recent GOES water-vapor imagery reveals a upper low over the
northern Pacific that is gradually approaching the Pacific
Northwest. Concurrently, mid-level moisture is slowly streaming
northward through central/southern CA. A combination of increasing
moisture and ascent ahead of the wave should promote isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest and
parts of the Great Basin beginning early D3/Wed. Increasing
low-level winds within the dry slot of the maturing low will promote
dry/windy conditions in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada.
Recent ensemble guidance continues to show a signal for elevated to
critical fire weather conditions across northwest NV and adjacent
portions of OR; however, the extent of the fire weather threat may
be conditional on morning rainfall amounts and sufficient clearing
in the wake of morning showers/thunderstorms.

The mid-level jet max is forecast to pass over the northern Great
Basin/northern Rockies around peak heating on D4/Thur. The westerly
downslope flow regime across much of NV and southern ID should
continue to promote dry conditions, especially across areas that
receive little rainfall in the preceding 24 hours. Ensemble
solutions show a strong signal for 15+ mph winds, and drier
solutions - notably the deterministic GFS as well as a few GEFS
members - suggest winds may reach 20-30 mph as strong mid-level flow
mixes to the surface. Consequently, elevated to critical fire
weather conditions appear possible.

...D6/Saturday to D7/Sunday - Great Basin...
Long-range ensembles and cluster analyses continue to suggest that a
second, perhaps more amplified, upper wave will approach the Pacific
Northwest/northern Great Basin during the D6/Sat to D7/Sun period.
While spread in guidance is noted (and expected at this range), the
overall synoptic regime implies increasing rain chances for the
Pacific Northwest with fire weather potential across central NV into
UT where drier/windier conditions are probable. Trends in this
system will be monitored for potential fire concerns heading into
the upcoming weekend.

..Moore.. 06/24/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$