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Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
626 ACUS48 KWNS 200746 SWOD48 SPC AC 200744 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday/D5, and upper trough is forecast to move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. The primary surface low will be well to the north in Quebec, but a cold front will extend south and likely interaction with a moist and marginally unstable air mass with at least 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. This may yield areas of strong storms over the region, and the trough progression will need to be monitored in upcoming outlooks. For Tuesday/D6 through Thursday/D8 period, a strong upper ridge is forecast over the Four Corners states, with strong northwest flow possibly developing from the northern Plains, upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. This type of setup could result in a severe MCS pattern over parts of the northern Plains to Midwest with damaging wind potential, possibly beginning as early as late Monday/D5 over the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Predictability of the potential severe corridors is low at this time, but severe areas could be introduced in later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 06/20/2024