925
ACUS48 KWNS 250822
SWOD48
SPC AC 250821

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0321 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Friday: Central Plains into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
The mid/upper-level shortwave trough and related surface cyclone
that move across the northern Plains on Thursday are forecast to
continue eastward across the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region on
Friday. Details regarding storm evolution remain uncertain, due to
the potential influence of early-day convection, and a tendency for
stronger mid/upper-level flow to be displaced from the more
favorable instability.

Strong to potentially severe storms may develop along a cold front
across parts of IA/MO into the central Plains. Some severe threat
could also evolve across parts of MN/WI, depending on the extent of
heating/destabilization in closer proximity to the surface cyclone.

...D5/Saturday: Ohio Valley into the Northeast...
Predictability begins to wane by this weekend regarding the
timing/amplitude of the shortwave trough expected to move from the
Great Lakes region into the Northeast/New England. There is some
potential for stronger deep-layer flow to overspread an increasingly
moist warm sector, but details regarding the surface pattern remain
uncertain, and rather warm temperatures aloft could limit
destabilization potential. Some potential for strong to locally
severe storms could evolve on D5/Saturday along/ahead of a cold
front from the Ohio Valley into parts of the Northeast.

...D6/Sunday - D8/Tuesday...
Guidance generally suggests that another mid/upper-level shortwave
trough will move from the Northwest into the northern Rockies and
Great Plains, sometime in the Sunday to Tuesday time frame.
Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the timing and amplitude
of this shortwave and evolution of the surface pattern, but some
organized severe-thunderstorm potential could eventually develop
from the northern Plains into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes by
early next week.

..Dean.. 06/25/2024