799
ACUS48 KWNS 160843
SWOD48
SPC AC 160841

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
From Wednesday/D4 into Thursday/D5, an upper trough will move from
Manitoba toward Hudson Bay, with the base of the trough shifting out
of ND/MN. This wave will continue east/northeast into Quebec,
flattening the ridge over the northeastern states. Meanwhile, upper
troughing will exist over the Great Basin, with moderately cool
temperatures aloft. Scattered storms will be likely along the
trailing front from the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes,
with perhaps a marginal severe risk given weaker shear and
instability.

Models indicate this western trough may emerge into the northern
Plains Friday/D6 into Saturday/D7, providing perhaps 40 kt midlevel
westerly winds and modest cooling aloft. Such a system may support
areas of strong storms, but overall the threat does not appear
particularly high. However, pockets of stronger instability could
support scattered hail and wind.

..Jewell.. 06/16/2024