Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
243 ACUS48 KWNS 270902 SWOD48 SPC AC 270900 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Sunday: Eastern MT into western ND... A mid/upper-level trough will move eastward from the Northwest toward the northern Rockies on Sunday, with some influence of this trough reaching the northern High Plains by late afternoon into early evening. Low-level moisture return north of a surface low across WY will support moderate destabilization across parts of eastern MT. Scattered storm development will be possible by early evening as the mid/upper trough approaches. Increasing midlevel flow will support initial supercell development, with a threat of large hail. A strengthening nocturnal low-level jet will aid in potential MCS development, which may spread some severe-wind potential into at least western ND Sunday night. ...D4/Sunday: Southern New England into the Mid Atlantic... Depending on the influence of early-day convection and timing of a cold front, some modest destabilization may occur from southern New England into the Mid Atlantic Sunday afternoon. Deep-layer shear would support some storm organization, and strong to locally severe storms will be possible. ...D5/Monday: Central/northern Great Plains... The mid/upper-level trough that moves across the northern Rockies on Sunday is forecast to emerge over the northern/central Great Plains on Sunday. Moderate to locally strong destabilization will be possible near and west of a warm front that is forecast to lift northeastward through the day. Deep-layer shear will increase as midlevel height falls overspread the warm sector, and scattered strong to severe storms may develop in the vicinity of a trailing surface trough/cold front. Supercells will be possible with initial development, with a potential tendency for some clustering/upscale growth with time. A 15% probability area has been included across parts of SD/NE, where confidence is currently greatest in severe-storm development. Some severe threat could also evolve across parts of ND, but there is greater uncertainty with northward extent due to the potential for an early-day MCS. Farther east, guidance varies regarding the potential for destabilization into parts of MN/IA. ...D6/Tuesday: East-central Plains into the upper Midwest... Some severe threat could spread eastward into parts of the east-central Plains and Midwest on Tuesday, in conjunction with the eastward-moving mid/upper-level trough and attendant cold front. However, predictability is currently too low to include probabilities, due to uncertainty regarding trough evolution and the influence of antecedent convection. ..Dean.. 06/27/2024