126
FXUS63 KDDC 160711
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
211 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal risk of severe weather for Sunday and Monday.

- Increasing probability of impactful surface winds Monday and
  Tuesday.

- A strong cold front will bring widespread rain and storms and
  the threat of some flooding in north central Kansas for the
  middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

07z observation and upper air analysis has a modest shortwave
moving through western Kansas which has produced some brief
pulsing showers and thunderstorms. Overall the upper level flow
is west to east while the boundary layer winds are out of the
southwest leading to a warm airmass during the overnight with
850 mb temperatures around 23 (C) and surface temperatures in
the low to mid 70s.

Today should be another warm day across southwest Kansas as we
should receive ample sunshine and with south to southwest winds
staying breezy with a deepening surface low in eastern Colorado
to around 993 mb by late afternoon this should help to warm 850
mb temperatures from 25 (C) in the east to 33 (C) in the far
west. Highs should get to around 100 especially along and west
of 83 where dewpoints should be 60 degrees or less. Highs in the
eastern zones will be in the mid to upper 90s and with higher
dew points we could certainly have heat index values in the low
100s.

Some CAMs are showing isolated storm development in the late
afternoon and early evening with another modest shortwave moving
in from eastern Colorado. With good curvature in the hodographs
and 0-6 km bulk shear around 30-40 kts these storms could
contain large hail. CAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg are contained
in the mid and upper levels and the storms should also be high
based so gusty winds are also possible and the tornado threat
should be nil.

Sunday night into Monday the surface low in Colorado will prog
very slowly to the NE and deepen to around 990 mb. With a well
mixed boundary layer Sunday night lows will only fall into the
lower 70s and we should warm back into the mid to upper 90s
Monday afternoon. Winds will be breezy during this entire time
with the strongest winds and best mixing coming in late Monday
afternoon. Euro ensemble for wind gusts show high probabilities
of gusts over 34 kts (~80%) and 100% for sustained winds greater
than 20 kts. Expect sustained winds in the 25-35 mph range and
winds gusts in the 40-50 mph range. By late afternoon a dryline
west of highway 83 could trigger a few isolated storms which
will have a threat of containing some large hail and gusty
winds.

Tuesday should be another warm and breezy day across southwest
Kansas with a slow moving cold front entering into northwest and
north central Kansas by late afternoon. With little upper level
momentum this front is expected to rain fairly stationary
through Wednesday and with upper level shortwave moving parallel
to the front we are expecting rounds of storms from Tuesday
night through Thursday. Highest POPs (50-60%) will be located
along the I-70 corridor through Wednesday morning and then more
widespread POPs (40%) across southwest Kansas will expand south
and westward along the stationary front. With the training
nature of the storms and higher PWATs (1.3-1.6 inches) the
threat of localized flash flooding will increase. WPC has put
all of southwest Kansas in a slight risk of flash flooding
during this time as a result.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR flight category for all terminals during the time period.
Winds will also stay breezy through the entire period with the
stronger winds arriving Sunday afternoon through Sunday
evening. Sustained winds of 15-25 kts with gusts over 30 kts can
be expected. Isolated to widely scattered storms are possible
(20-30% probability of precipitation) Sunday afternoon through
Sunday evening and VCTS are possible GCK, LBL, and DDC airports
from 22-02Z.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Tatro