Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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654 FXUS63 KDDC 160549 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1249 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower and weak storm potential confined along the Colorado border tonight - Mid level disturbance may bring showers and weak storms across eastern zones Monday morning - Isolated storm coverage Monday with higher chances (>40%) Tuesday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Satellite water vapor channel shows a minor UL wave moving across western Colorado this afternoon. This weak disturbance will continue to move east across that state this evening. At the low levels, a lee trough continues across eastern Colorado this afternoon. Dewpoints across the FA are in the 50s across far western Kansas to mainly low to mid 60s across the rest of the area. The combination of the weak disturbance moving through and low level moisture could result in showers and weak storms develop across eastern Colorado this afternoon. As a result, will continue to keep some low 15-20% pops across the Kansas/Colorado border for this afternoon and evening. Do not expect much propagation of this activity into the state through the evening. Otherwise, the next chance of showers and weak storms is not expected until Monday morning as a mid level baroclinic band moves across central Kansas. Will continue with slight pops (15-24%) across the eastern counties to account for this possibility. Unfortunately, the rest of the FA should remain dry through Monday morning. Storm potential for Monday afternoon and evening is of low confidence. Several CAMs are all showing different storm potential from some isolated activity to not much at all. Overall synoptics tomorrow are rather weak, so spatial coverage should remain on the isolated side. As a result, will continue with only 15-20% pops for some of the FA. There isn`t really a clear cut solution right now, so this is the reason for the broadbrushed low pops. Low level moisture will continue with dewpoints in the 50s and 60s, so it is hard to rule from anything not developing at this point in time. The overall weather picture still stands with only isolated coverage of showers and weak storms Monday afternoon and evening. Attention then turns to Tuesday. The lee trough will deepen through the day as a large UL trof carves out upstream of the FA. Low level moisture will continue across western Kansas with dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s. The combination of this moisture and the approaching UL wave will lead to the highest storm chances with pops greater than 40% for much of the FA. EPS probabilities of >0.10" are to 40 to 70%. Grand ensemble probabilities of the same QPF amount are in the 40 to 70% range as well. As a result, think the deterministic solutions are in line with the probabilistic sources and will continue with the higher pops for now. We will be in between weather systems Wednesday and Thursday with weak shortwave ridging. As a result, a mainly dry forecast is likely for the middle portion of the business week. By Friday, a second UL low/trof begins to carve out across the western United States. Low level moisture across Kansas is expected to continue with dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s. As a result, another storm window is possible across southwest Kansas Friday. Grand ensemble and EPS probabilities for QPF >0.10" being to increase during this period, which does match up with some of the long range deterministic solutions. Both EPS and GEFS QPF amounts are forecast across southwest Kansas to also consider an ensemble approach. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1247 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Aviation weather will continue to be good through this TAF period with no major sensible weather changes expected from initial conditions. Winds will remain south to southeast tonight through Monday, increasing in speed again to 15 to 20 knots sustained with higher gusts. VFR flight category will continue, and the probability of thunderstorm(s) at any of the terminals DDC, GCK, LBL, HYS is too low to include in the TAF at this time. The best chance for widespread thunderstorm activity is Tuesday Night. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Russell AVIATION...Umscheid