Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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180 FXUS63 KDDC 191900 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 200 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Our next shot at moisture is Friday afternoon and evening - Next shot after that is Saturday and Sunday. Large uncertainty! - Nice break from the heat next week! && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 A weak front is moving across the FA this early afternoon. The main impact from this will be a wind shift as it moves through. Any storms are expected to be well east and southeast of the FA tonight, so a quiet weather night is expected across southwest Kansas. Winds will eventually become light and variable tonight as high pressure moves over the area this evening. Relatively mild lows are expected tonight with 50s NW to 60s SE. The mentioned front will return northward Friday and should bisect the FA during the afternoon. A minor/weak UL wave moving through should interact with the boundary and spark off some showers and storms by afternoon and evening. Forecast PWATs are to be high and above climo (90th percentile), so heavy rainfall and lightning are the main threats with this activity. Have the highest confidence of storms along and south of Highway 50. This seems to be the general consensus amongst all the CAM solutions. Highs south of the front will be hot with values in the mid to upper 90s. Farther north, it will still be hot with values in the lower 90s. There might be a moderate wind gust of 40 to 50 mph with the storms as well. Overall, severe thunderstorm threat looks limited. Attention then turns to over the weekend. A large UL low continue to move east over the weekend and approach the state Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Forecast PWATs during this time are modeled to be around the 90th percentile. The UL low and low level moisture will set the stage for heavy rainfall somewhere across the plains. I say somewhere because there is incredibly large uncertainty in both deterministic model solutions as well as ensemble models. Ensemble QPF amounts from both the GEFS and EPS are all over the map in terms of where the heavier rainfall axis will fall. Some of the ensemble members look like they want to trend to keep the heavier rainfall axis north of the FA. Do not have high confidence in the trend, is this trend did not exist in yesterdays ensembles. Bottom line, someone will see some very good rains, but the location is unclear at this time. WPC does have an excessive rainfall outlook at marginal levels, so the threat is there. AI models like the ECMWF-AIFS has the heavier rainfall axis right through Dodge City. GraphCast GFS as well, with a slight displacement to the north. Please stay tuned to the forecast as hopefully uncertainty decreases and the models (both deterministic and ensemble) hopefully come into better agreement. Regardless of the moisture, it does look like we will get a welcomed break from the heat Sunday onward... so there is that. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1111 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 VFR is expected through TAF pd. Light NW to N winds 5-15 kt will prevail today in the wake of a weak boundary. Winds will become light and variable by midnight tonight. A weak warm front will lift north tomorrow with light winds switching to light southerly 5-15 kt through much of the day. There is a chance of storms in the late afternoon to evening period, however, this is outside of the TAF pd. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Sugden AVIATION...Sugden