Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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547 FXUS63 KDDC 171050 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 550 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe storms this evening mainly west of Highway 283 to the Colorado line, however most storm will remain sub-severe. - Overall precipitation amounts expected to be on the low side with most areas 20 to 30% chance of 1/4" of new rainfall. - Eyes turn to Friday Night and especially late Saturday and Saturday Night as models are trending toward a heavier precipitation potential with a stronger storm poised for Kansas with a cold front involved. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 357 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 The remnants of last night`s convective episode across the northern portion of the NWS DDC forecast area continued to slowly decay as it moved into central Kansas as of 08Z. The remainder of the day will be mostly clear in its wake and temperatures are forecast to rise well into the upper 80s, topping out in the lower 90s much of southwest Kansas. The large upper level low out west will lift out across the Rockies and adjacent Northern High Plains later today and tonight. Upper level jet streak forcing for ascent tied to this system will overspread western Kansas this evening, favoring numerous shower and thunderstorm development within the warm conveyor belt airstream of this mid-latitude cyclone. Overall instability and moisture will not be all that great with HREF mean SBCAPE only 300-700 J/kg out ahead of the developing broken line of storms this evening. As a result, only marginal severe storms are expected across our forecast area, and this will be confined to areas west of Highway 283 only until a couple hours or so after sunset. As we head deeper into the night, the upper low will continue to pull north-northeastward, farther away from southwest Kansas, which will result in decreased forcing for ascent, and this tied with nocturnal boundary layer cooling will lead to an overall decrease in convective activity after midnight tonight. Latest 00Z run of the HREF shows 0.25" rainfall probability of exceedance only in the 20 to 35% range, but as we saw last night in western Trego County, it only takes a few storms to train over one small area to result in local excessive rainfall. The probability of this happening again is quite low, as cloud-bearing winds will be stronger and we should see a fairly steady progression of showers and storms to the east versus last night. We will see a break in thunderstorm chances Wednesday and Thursday with chances increasing again Friday as the next storm system approaches. The global models continue to slow this weekend storm system down, focusing now on Saturday-Saturday Night for our NWS DDC forecast area for widespread thunderstorm activity. Taking a look at the last three runs of the 100-member Grand Ensemble of ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian ensemble systems, there is a noticeable shift south in the 24-hr QPF fields. The latest 00Z run now has 75th percentile (1-in-4 chance) QPF of 0.50" or greater encompassing much of the DDC forecast area, including DDC at 0.64". There is still quite a bit of time for the heavy precipitation zone with the Saturday-Saturday Night storm to shift even farther south. The ECMWF Ensemble system is the most favorable for much of our area with over an inch in the 75th percentile QPF field from Dodge City to Hays. A farther south track of the storm aimed more toward Kansas, better/deeper moisture profile, and a rather strong frontogenetic zone will all be much favorable contributors to a potential heavy rain event, so keep checking back for updates regarding the weekend forecast. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 548 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 South winds will continue through this TAF period. VFR flight category will continue as well, but aviation weather will begin to deteriorate as numerous thunderstorms move east-northeast across west central and southwest Kansas later this evening. We have introduced PROB30 for thunderstorms at all 4 terminals GCK, DDC, HYS, and LBL given the fairly high confidence of organized thunderstorm activity tonight. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Umscheid AVIATION...Umscheid