530
FXUS63 KDDC 242320
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
620 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- No changes to current heat advisory areas for the rest of
  Today and Tuesday.

- Widely scattered 10-25% areal coverage thunderstorms possible
  through the Highway K-96 corridor of west central Kansas
  between about 9 pm and 3 am.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Temperatures have been a little slow to reach the high 90s and
100 degree mark in the eastern counties, however with still a
little time in the day for temps to rise, and the mid 60s dew
points in the area, the heat advised counties seem well
justified. A surface boundary over northwest Kansas can be the
focal area for development of thunderstorms, fighting a very
strong mid level capping 13-14C layer. Any storms able to break
a capping layer can produce strong damaging winds given the
steep mid and low level lapse rates in the late evening hours to
past midnight. Gusty south winds are likely to continue well
through the evening, maintaining hot temperatures in the 90s
through sunset. Widely scattered storms will be relegated to
areas north of highway 400, with a lower chance (10-20%) of
lingering farther south and east in the overnight hours.

More widespread heat risk is expected on Tuesday and the heat
advisory remains in place from Wakeeney to Liberal and all
points east. Forecast Apparent Temperatures are the warmest in
the red hills region (Coldwater - Barber County - Pratt) where
the apparent temps climb to around 105-109 degrees on the NBM.
Additionally, Tuesday offers better dynamics with the winds
aloft increasing as a northwesterly mid level jet segment
spreads into central Kansas in the early through late evening.
This will allow a greater areal coverage of risk for damaging
wind and large hail.

For Wednesday evening and Thursday evening, both look conducive
for diurnal MCS activity on the high plains. Ensembles also
show signal for QPF Thursday through Friday, with little
separation in the 6 hour timing bins. But, the deterministic
models GEM/GFS/EC still advertise an arc of 60 deg or higher
surface dew points extending from western OK into NW Kansas
Wednesday night, with an MCS signal in the QPF fields through
18z Thursday, so early thunderstorms could be ongoing Wednesday
morning well into the day. With the jet dynamics still in place,
MCS activity looks possible again Thursday night with perhaps
not as much CAPE/instability based on the surface dew points.

In the longer term, the best timing for active weather with
appreciable precipitation returns about late Saturday night
through Sunday based on 24 hour QPF multiple run trends of the
GFS and ECMWF ensembles.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Current
gusty southerly winds will relax to aoa 12 kts over the next few
hours. Thunderstorm activity across southwest KS is possible
after 03Z, mainly at HYS and GCK, but low confidence precluded
any mention in the TAFs. Winds will continue their steady
decline through the overnight period, reaching light and
variable by late morning/early afternoon Tuesday.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ030-031-046-
065-066-081-090.
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ030-031-045-
046-064>066-077>081-086>090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Russell
AVIATION...Springer