Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
163 FXXX12 KWNP 241231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Sep 24 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an M1.3 flare at 23/1456 UTC from newly numbered Region 3836 (S12E66, Dsi/beta-gamma-delta). Slight growth was observed in Region 3835 (S25E42, Dso/beta). The rest of the spotted regions were either stable or in slight decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery. The CME off the SE limb at 22/2136 UTC, associated with an M 3.7 flare at 22/2139 UTC, was reanalyzed. Model results indicated a potential glancing blow around early to midday on 25 Sep. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance for X-class (R3- Strong) flares on 24-26 Sep. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,390 pfu at 23/1445 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to reach high levels on 24-25 Sep. A drop to normal levels is expected with the arrival of the 22 Sep CME. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels on 24-26 Sep. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters became enhanced after 23/1136 UTC, likely associated with a CME arrival. Total field increased from 6 nT to 12 nT while the Bz component ranged from -10 nt to +11 nt. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 360 km/s to near 470 km/s. Phi angle was mostly negative. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are likely going to remain enhanced through the period as current CME effects persist into 24 Sep. A further enhancement is expected early to midday on 25 Sep due to the arrival of a glancing blow from the 22 Sep CME along with possible positive polarity CH HSS influence. A slow recovery to nominal levels is likely by late on 26 Sep. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached active levels, likely due to CME influence. .Forecast... Unsettled to active levels are expected to continue in 24 Sep as CME activity persists. By early to midday on 25 Sep, a combination of a glancing blow from the 22 Sep CME and HSS effects will likely cause active to G1 (Minor) storming. Unsettled to active levels will likely persist into 26 Sep.