Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
703 FXXX12 KWNP 151231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Sep 15 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity increased to high levels following an X4.5/2b flare from Region 3825 (S18E41, Eac/beta-gamma-delta). Associated with this flare was a 10cm radio burst (1000 sfu), and a fast moving CME. This region exhibited growth in its intermediate and peripheral spots near the main leader, and maintained its delta magnetic configuration. The only other group that displayed growth was newly numbered Region 3826 (S28W24, Dri/beta), though it remained mostly quiet during the period. The remaining spot groups were stable and inactive. Analysis of the aforementioned CME indicates the presence of an Earth-directed component with an anticipated arrival time of around midday on 16 Sep. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be at moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) levels, with a slight chance for isolated R3 (Strong) radio blackouts on 15-17 Sep as Region 3825 makes its way towards center disk. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with a peak flux of 1,007 pfu at 15/1120 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued to be elevated, due to the X4.5 flare event and subsequent CME from AR 3825, with a peak flux of 5.36 pfu at 15/1055 UTC. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels, with a chance for high values, through 15 Sep. Values will likely decrease to normal to moderate levels following the anticipated arrival of the 14 Sep CME. There is a slight, yet increasing chance for the 10 MeV proton flux to reach the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels on 15-16 Sep due to influence from the 14 Sep X4.5 flare event. Barring an additional event, probabilities will decrease somewhat on 17 Sep after the arrival of the 14 Sep CME. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters remained slightly enhanced likely due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Total field was between 7-9 nT, the Bz component ranged between +/-8 nT with a few prolonged deflections, and solar wind speeds increased from ~400 km/s to ~500 km/s. Phi was predominantly positive. .Forecast... Current enhancements are anticipated to continue through 15 Sep. Additional, strong, enhancements from the 14 Sep CME event are likely to materialize by midday 16 Sep and continue through 17 Sep. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. .Forecast... Unsettled to active levels are expected on 15 Sep due to lingering influence from the 11 Sep CME and positive polarity CH HSS effects. By midday on 16 Sep, the arrival of the combined 13 Sep and 14 Sep CMEs, are likely to increase conditions to G3 (Strong) storm levels. Lingering CME/CH effects are anticipated to persist into 17 Sep, with G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions likely.