Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
045 FXXX12 KWNP 161231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Jun 16 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity returned to low levels. Region 3712 was responsible for the majority of the C-class flare activity observed this period. Regions 3712 and 3716 both exhibited growth in their respective intermediate spot areas. The remaining spotted regions were either stable or in decay. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to reach moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) over 16-18 Jun due primarily to the flare potential of Region 3712. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. Particle data from GOES were not available after 16/0000 UTC due to an outage. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 18 Jun. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over 16-18 Jun. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters indicated the arrival of a CME, possibly the 12 Jun CME. At 15/1103 UTC, a weak shock arrived at the ACE spacecraft. Total field increased from 6 nT to 14 nT while the Bz initially deflected southward to near -13 nT. Solar wind speed increased from 368 km/s to 458 km/s before becoming variable between 360-455 km/s. Total field remained between 10-14 nT. Phi angle was variable. Solar wind data was not available after 16/0000 UTC due to an outage. .Forecast... Weakly enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over the remainder of 16 Jun, following CME activity. Positive polarity CH HSS influences and a mildly enhanced solar wind environment are expected on 17-18 Jun. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels due to CME activity early in the period. Geomagnetic field measurements were not available after 16/0000 UTC due to an outage. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled and active levels on 16 Jun following CME activity. Quiet and unsettled levels are expected on 17 Jun, and unsettled to active levels are expected on 18 Jun, as a positive polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective.