Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
609 FXXX12 KWNP 250031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Jun 25 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels with multiple C-class flares and five M-class flares. There are nine active regions on the disk with two to three new regions coming into view on the east limb. The largest solar flare reached a peak of M1.8 at 24/0452 UTC from Region 3712 (Eao/beta-gamma) which has now rotated off the west limb. The remaining active regions remain in the eastern hemisphere. Region 3719 (S14E02 Cki/beta) decreased in size due decay of trailer spots. Region 3720 (S06E11 Dai/beta-gamma) has increased in size from the consolidation of spots and growth particularly in the trailer. Region 3723 (S19E54 Dso/beta) is the main region of interest; possibly known formerly as Region 3697 during the last cycle and Region 3664 the cycle prior. The region produced an M9.3/1n flare at 23/1301 UTC and is expected to continue its activity over the coming days being a primary driver for the full disk flare forecast. There have been multiple filament eruptions one near S50W09 at 24/0115 UTC, and another near N25W15 at 24/0147 UTC, although neither event produced Earth-directed CMEs. A large CME associated with flare activity from Region 3712, and first visible in LASCO C2 off the SW at 24/0248 UTC, is not expected to be Earth-directed. .Forecast... M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely 25-27 Jun, with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3; Strong) due primarily to the flare probabilities of Regions 3723 and 3720. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... As the active regions on the west limb rotate out of their geoeffective position and with no active regions in the western hemisphere chances for high energy particle impacts are reduced from a slight chance on 25 Jun to nominal on 26-27 Jun. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels all three days. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters remained at background levels. Total field strength ranged from 3-6 nT, Bz varied between +4/-2 nT, and solar wind decreased from 340 to 300 km/s. The phi angle has been primarily negative throughout the period. .Forecast...There is a very slight chance for enhanced solar wind conditions 27 Jun due to a glancing interaction from a passing CME associated with a filament eruption on 23 Jun but confidence is low. Otherwise, nominal solar wind conditions are expected to prevail 25-27 Jun. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field has been quiet (Kp=0-2) as coronal holes have rotated out of their geoeffective position and no Earth-directed CMEs have occurred. .Forecast... Mostly quiet conditions are expected to prevail over 25-27 Jun. As mentioned previously there will be a slight enhancement of the solar wind which could lead to unsettled conditions in the geomagnetic field on 27 Jun but confidence is low.