736
FXUS63 KDLH 231930
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
230 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fairly quiet weather this week with temperatures steadily warming
back well above normal.

- Next chance of widespread precipitation sometime next weekend
  or into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Much cooler temperatures have arrived along with a much drier
airmass. Some diurnal cumulus should dissipate quickly into the
evening hours while mid to high clouds continue to push into the
area. Another cool night is expected into Tuesday morning with
some patchy frost possible, but we`re currently not expecting it
to be widespread enough to need a Frost Advisory.

A shortwave lengthens across the Northern Plains overnight, pushing
a front across western Minnesota. Very dry air at the surface is
likely to prevent much in the way of precipitation from this system.
The rainiest solution from ensembles brings a trace to International
Falls and Brainerd and most models keep any precipitation from
falling. We`ve kept a 15% chance across our west, but rain is
unlikely.

As that shortwave becomes a cutoff low and falls southward, we`ll
see ridging return, with a gentle warm up hedging towards mid to
upper 70s mid to late week. This is still 10 to 20 degrees above
normal, but is not expected to be as hot and muggy as last week`s
heinous summer-like heat wave. A lack of precipitation, a dry
airmass, and clear skies should lead to good cool downs overnight.
Global ensembles bring back a widespread chance of precipitation
sometime next weekend into next week as a disturbance returns from
the Gulf of Mexico, but timing will be dependent on how fast the
ridge breaks down.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. There is a
slight chance for a shower at BRD and INL late this evening into
early Tuesday morning, but more likely it will be virga with VFR
ceilings still. Have opted to not include a VCSH mention at either
terminal because chances are so low. Some gusty south winds today
should die down overnight.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

No significant weather or winds expected over the next couple days.
Easterly winds become southerly overnight before a lake breeze
circulation Tuesday afternoon brings winds to become east to
northeasterly once again. Some gusts of 10-15 knots could be
possible at the head of the lake which may bring some chop to the
Twin Ports. Winds then turn to become southwesterly Wednesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...Levens
MARINE...Levens