Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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628 FXUS63 KDLH 241640 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1140 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slightly above normal temperatures today warm to well above normal for mid to late week. - A 10-30% chance of rainfall returns early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 202 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 A shortwave trough diving southeastward across the northern U.S. Plains early this morning is draping a cool front out ahead of it into the Upper Midwest. Very weak mid-level forcing associated with the cool front is pushing into north-central Minnesota right now and producing widely scattered high-based and low-topped rain showers. Maximum forecast rainfall is a few hundredths of an inch into the sunrise hours this morning for the Brainerd Lakes region and western Iron Range. Temperatures today are forecast to be slightly above normal in the upper-60s to near 70 ahead of incoming further warming for mid to late this week. A stout area of high pressure builds over the Southern U.S. High Plains today into tonight and extends a high-amplitude blocking ridge from the low to mid-levels. This setup favors another bout of very warm temperatures beginning Wednesday and lasting at least through the weekend. Forecast high temperatures in the upper-70s to around 80 F would be 12 to 17 F above normal for late September. Forecast guidance has the ridge flattening out as Pacific shortwaves try to move through southern Canada this weekend which would place westerly flow over much of northern Minnesota. A persistent strong area of low pressure over the Deep South though could create light northerly to northeasterly flow over northwest Wisconsin this weekend, depending on the track of the low and how much the ridge flattens out. Either way, this pattern favors dry weather continuing in the Northland until maybe next Monday when a Pacific shortwave could sneak across the Northern U.S. Plains and into the Upper Midwest for a 10-30% chance of rain showers again. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1139 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 VFR conditions are expected through this evening with light southerly winds. A very low chance for some showers at INL and HIB this afternoon. Overnight, some fog development off the head of Lake Superior is possible, which may bring reduced visibilities to DLH and HIB. There are a couple models that bring fog to HYR as well, but have kept it out of the TAF for now. A return to all VFR after sunrise Wednesday with light west to northwest winds. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 140 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Southerly winds 10 to 20 knots this morning shift easterly this afternoon ahead of an incoming weak cool front that passes over the Big Lake tonight. Expect another wind shift to west southwesterly by Wednesday morning, but remaining below 20 knots. Wave heights are forecast to be highest for the next few days this morning near and northeast of Grand Marais. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NLy AVIATION...Levens MARINE...NLy