541
FXUS63 KDLH 252340
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
640 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog tonight which may be dense in some areas.

- Dry conditions and above normal temperatures persist through
  the week and into the weekend.

- Rain chances return to start the week as a cold front moves
  through the region bringing cooler temperatures as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

High pressure was in control across the Nation`s midsection
resulting in mainly clear skies and temperatures warming into
the 70s across the Northland. Normal highs for late September
across the region are in the middle 60s, so highs are running
around 10 to 15 degrees above normal. As temperatures cool
tonight, fog is expected to develop across the region. Fog is
not expected to be as widespread as this morning, but with
Ts falling into the same range as Tds, clear skies and light
winds, it is expected to develop despite models being a bit
pessimistic on this potential. Coverage of fog will need to be
monitored for any potential advisories, but there is the
potential for areas of dense fog, especially along the Iron
Range.

High pressure will remain in control through the week and into
the weekend. Not only will this keep the region dry and warm, it
will keep the remnants of Hurricane Helene to the south as it
moves into the Ohio Valley by the weekend. Temperatures will
warm a bit more for Thursday through Saturday with highs in the
upper 70s and lower 80s before cooling slightly into the 70s for
Sunday. This will result in readings some 10 to 20 degrees above
normal.

Models are in fairly decent agreement bringing a shortwave
trough through the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest for
Monday into Tuesday. While most of the energy and QPF look to
remain north of the International Border, there will be around a
10 to 30% chance for some shower activity, mainly along and
north of the Iron Range for Monday and Monday night. There will
be a lot of dry air to overcome, however, so rainfall may be
very light if it occurs at all. Much cooler air will spill into
the Northland behind the cold front with highs in the 50s and
60s expected for Tuesday which will be near to slightly below
normal for the beginning of October.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Fog is the main concern once again with this terminal forecast.
Radiation based fog should develop for KDLH, KHIB and KHYR in
the 06z-13z time range visibilities should be MVFR for both KDLH
and KHYR, with KHIB to IFR. Conditions should not be as low as
this morning based on how warm and dry it got today and warmer
expected min temps tonight, so have no worse than IFR
conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. Winds of
less than 5 knots are expected through 18z Thursday, then MN
terminals should begin to increase out of the south.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Winds will diminish tonight and become variable at around 5
knots. With ridging overhead for Thursday, winds will remain
variable at 5 to 10 knots Thursday into Thursday night. Winds
then become southwesterly for Friday at 6 to 12 knots. Waves
will remain under 2 feet through the period.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...BJH