465
FXUS63 KDLH 170528
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1228 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms into this evening mainly north-central
  MN and the Arrowhead.

- A 5-10% chance of a strong to severe thunderstorm and a 5-15%
  chance of heavy rainfall in north-central Minnesota and the
  Arrowhead tonight.

- Warm temperatures continue through mid-week before gradually
  cooling to normal by this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Low pressure deepening over the northern high plains is expected
to trigger strong to widely scattered severe thunderstorms over
the northern plains this evening. As the storms move
northeastward, a few stronger thunderstorms could (5-10% chance)
move through just east enough to impact far north-central
Minnesota later this evening as a result. If any stronger
thunderstorms do realize into an isolated severe thunderstorm,
hail around the size of a quarter would be the primary expected
hazard type. The seasonably moist airmass over the Northland
keeps concerns for heavy rainfall in the region too, so any
strong to severe thunderstorm could (5% chance) be accompanied
by heavy rainfall as well into early Tuesday morning.

As the low moves eastward Tuesday, general thunderstorm chances
(30-40% chance) are forecast into tomorrow morning. A stalled
boundary along the Borderlands could (20-30% chance) also
promote further general thunderstorms into Tuesday night. Drier
weather looks likely (90% chance) on Wednesday as a drier air
mass may promote decreased relative humidity from a drop in dew
points into the 50 degree F range behind the passing low
pressure.

A western trough begins to breakdown Wednesday and low pressure
lifts into the northern high plains to deepen into Thursday. A
cold front passes over the region later Thursday. This Thursday
night time period looks to be the best chances for more
widespread rainfall (light to moderate) as the western low
pressure centered in south-central Canada brings in cooler
westerly air behind the front. This late work week into weekend
time period looks to be the first time of returning to normal to
below normal temperatures this fall! Stratiform and widespread
rainfall returns later Saturday and into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

A few waves of thunderstorms are riding along the International
Border this early this morning impacting INL. The sector of storms
near INL at TAF issuance are slowly exiting the terminal with the
next wave still over the Red River Valley. There is some uncertainty
as to whether the subsequent wave can hold together and impact the
terminal.

The rest of Tuesday will be a challenge as high res guidance
suggests minimal storm coverage through the day. However, given the
favorable southerly flow and weak lift we have opted to put some
VCTS in the afternoon hours despite the lack of a signal in the high
res models. Additionally, we removed the threat of low level wind
shear across the region as the strength of the low level winds is
more confined to southern MN.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Light winds generally less than 15 knots are forecast outside of
scattered thunderstorms where gusty, erratic winds may occur
this evening and again Tuesday on the North Shore. Dry weather
is forecast on Wednesday over the lake.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NLy
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...NLy