Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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352 FXUS63 KDLH 212318 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 618 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Periods of rain and some thunderstorms continue through the weekend. - More showers and storms are possible Monday late-afternoon into early Tuesday morning. Some strong to severe storms are possible. - Active weather with rain and thunder chances persist through next week with occasional breaks of sunshine. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 This afternoon, we`re continuing to watch rain and storm potential with a quasi-stalled warm front across southern Minnesota, which is expected to very slowly migrate north going into Saturday. Models are in good agreement about keeping this front south of our region, and as such, flooding rain potential has been greatly reduced. We will still have several upper-level waves passing through, and eventually a low pressure center that will pass by just to the south on Saturday. This will keep at least scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms across the region through tonight, especially east- central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. Amounts are generally expected to be light relative to what we`ve seen the past several days with totals generally less than 0.5" through tonight. Instability is expected to increase overnight, raising the chances for thunder late, but with MUCAPE remaining below 500 J/kg, severe weather is not expected. On Saturday, we essentially see a continuation of rain chances. A more potent upper-level wave and the attendant low-pressure center will pass through central Minnesota into central/northern Wisconsin, and with this, we may see a more organized area of rainfall move through especially in the afternoon. Chances for any strong to severe storms have continued to decrease for Sunday afternoon as the best instability remains well to the south. At this point, we may see a few storms in the afternoon and early evening, mainly in northwest Wisconsin. Couldn`t rule out a stray strong to severe storm, but the likelihood continues to decrease. For rainfall totals, additional amounts around 0.5" to 1.5", mainly across northwest Wisconsin towards the Twin Ports on Saturday. Another passing wave aloft may bring another area of rain into northeast Minnesota Saturday night into Sunday. With this, only light rainfall amounts (0.25" or less) are expected as we get into more of a west/northwest flow pattern and PWATs decrease from ~1.5" to ~1". With a very small amount of instability, some stray rumbles of thunder can`t be ruled out. East/northeasterly winds shift to northwesterly on Sunday, and additional showers and possibly non-severe storms will be possible (20-40% chance). These will linger into the evening before diminishing with clearing skies expected Sunday night. Strong warm air advection aloft underneath upper-level ridging will bring about a chance for thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe late evening Monday through Monday night. Depending on the position of a warm front to the south, the threat for severe weather could be around our region or perhaps further to the south. North of the warm front, the environment is expected to be capped, but aside from that, there should be plenty of instability available for thunderstorms (up to 2000 to 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE). We will have to continue to monitor how this setup evolves, but right now, there is at least a small chance for some strong to severe storms during this period. Going forward into the week, there may be a quieter stretch of weather on Tuesday with flow becoming northwesterly behind a cold front. The active pattern still doesn`t show much signs of stopping, however, and there may be more chances for rain/storms in the later part of the week. Temperature-wise, seasonal to slightly above average this weekend, then briefly warmer Monday and Tuesday with highs in the lower 80s. Some relatively cooler (but seasonable) temperatures are likely for the later parts of the week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 617 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 VFR conditions are expected to persist for most of the period at HIB/INL. Further south, a broad shield of clouds (MVFR to IFR) are expected to continue impacting HYR/BRD/DLH. Rain chances for the next 6 hours are looking quite low, but chances increase from south to north tonight. IFR ceilings are expected tonight and into Saturday morning. There could be a stray embedded thunderstorm or two as well, mainly at HYR/BRD. MVFR visibilities are likely at times with showers and perhaps some fog potentially developing later tonight, mainly at HYR. Winds remain below 20 kt from the east to northeast through the period. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Winds are expected to remain northeasterly tonight with gusts 15 kt or less, but strengthening on Saturday through the day where gusts to 25 knots and wave heights up to 5 ft are expected for most nearshore waters, particularly the Head of the Lake, up the North Shore, and South Shore through the Outer Apostle Islands. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for these areas. Winds will become westerly to southwesterly on Sunday, and speeds will be less than 10 knots. There will be a small chance (20%) for thunderstorms late tonight into Saturday. Rain is expected at times through the weekend, especially Saturday afternoon and night. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for LSZ142>147-150. && $$ DISCUSSION...JDS AVIATION...JDS/Wolfe MARINE...JDS