304
FNUS73 KDLH 171056
FWSDLH

Spot Forecast for NWS Block I...US Forest Service
National Weather Service Duluth MN
556 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1400 CDT on September 17.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if
conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653.

.DISCUSSION...

Wednesday will be dry with a minimum humidity around 40%. It will be
very warm with highs in the mid-eighties. Expect south to southeast
winds 5 to 10 mph with some gusts to 15 mph. A cold front will move
through Thursday night switching winds from southerly to westerly on
Friday. There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms with
the frontal passage, but significant rainfall looks unlikely at this
time. Looking further ahead, confidence is lower than average for
the late week into next weekend. There are some indications that a
stronger area of low pressure may develop late weekend into early
next week but agreement among the models is poor. If the low were to
develop, chances for more significant rain will occur.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers through the day. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........53 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 7 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......5700 ft AGL decreasing to 3100 ft AGL late in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 18 to 21 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (96800-107200 knot-ft) decreasing to
                    good to excellent (47100-65700 knot-ft) late in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (CDT)      2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......PC  PC  PC  PC
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........        SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  20  20
LAL.............1   1   1   1
Temp............81  83  82  81
RH..............55  53  53  54
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..9   9   8   7
20 FT wind gust.16  16  16  14
Mix hgt (kft)...5.4 5.7 5.7 3.1
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.21  21  21  18
Haines index....4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/1000101 107 105 66

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 61.
Max humidity........80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 6 mph.
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3600-11200 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......PC  PC  PC  PC  MCR PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............80  76  73  71  70  69  68  67  66  65  64  63
RH..............57  61  65  68  79  78  79  79  79  79  75  76
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   6   5
20 FT wind gust.14  12  12  13  13  14  14  14  14  14  14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.13  12  10  12  13  13  13  13  13  14  14  12
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/100011  6   4   4   4   5   5   5   4   5   5   4

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......1800 ft AGL increasing to 4000 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 13 to 21 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (4300-15700 knot-ft) increasing to
                    good to excellent (39200-67800 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............62  61  64  66  71  74  77  80  82  83  83  81
RH..............77  73  71  66  59  53  49  44  42  40  43  45
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   6   7   7   7   8   8   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.13  13  14  14  15  15  15  14  14  14  14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.8 2.5 3.3 3.5 3.8 4.0 2.8
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.13  13  14  14  17  20  20  20  20  21  20  17
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/10005   4   7   10  16  31  45  57  61  66  68  42

$$
Forecaster...Dean M
Requested by...Michael Mattmiller
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2422589.0/DLH
.DELDT 09/17/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL michael.mattmiller@usda.gov