Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
278 FXUS63 KDTX 100953 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 553 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions for the first half of the week. - Cool today with a warming trend into mid-week. - Next chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday. && .AVIATION... A band of MVFR ceilings is passing southward across much of the airspace this morning. Cold and dry advection has already led to rapid increases in cloud bases to VFR across IKW, MBS, HYX, and BAX, a trend that will continue to spread southward through the morning. Ceilings scatter by late morning as the boundary layer quickly entrains drier air, and eventually clear skies become favored this afternoon through tonight. NNW wind near 10 kt trends N before weakening with the loss of daytime heating this evening. High pressure builds in tonight with continued VFR conditions and light winds. For DTW/D21 Convection...Thunderstorms are not expected through the TAF period. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * High in ceilings aob 5000 feet this morning. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 405 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 DISCUSSION... The passage of the frontal boundary yesterday has brought a cool northerly flow to Michigan, which will reside between a high amplitude ridge to the west and trough to the east. An area of overcast low clouds is spreading southward with the cold advection this morning. Expect these clouds to mix out by the afternoon given the shallow nature of this moisture. Mostly sunny skies will prevail by the afternoon, but the cooler airmass characterized by 850mb temperatures around 4-6C will keep afternoon highs below normal today. Most of the area will be in 60s with areas along the Lake Huron shoreline likely holding in the 50s. Mixing depths approach 5kft, but lower level flow has decreased quite a bit from yesterday. Expecting the northerly winds to stay below 20 mph. Sprawling surface high pressure building into the Great Lakes today will ensure dry conditions. Mid/upper level ridge axis will move over the central Great Lakes Tuesday with the surface high pressure still in place. This will mark the beginning of the return flow and help daytime high temperatures tomorrow return to the 70s under mostly clear skies. Tuesday night into early Wednesday will see the early stages of moisture returning into southeast Michigan ahead of a shortwave and weakening frontal boundary. The shortwave will move overhead during the day Wednesday. Overall moisture and lack of forcing should result in mainly a boost in cloud cover with limited precipitation chances for Wednesday. Outgoing forecast will remain dry. Greater warm air advection within the west-southwest flow aloft will support the notable warming trend during the mid to late week period. By Thursday, temperatures within the arriving thermal ridge will be upwards of 13-16C and support daytime highs climbing into the 80s. Moisture is also expected to improve further Wednesday night into Thursday as 850 mb moisture transport helps usher in Precipitable Water values of 1.25 to 1.50 inches. Ensembles showing good improvement in instability on Thursday while increasing wind fields bring decent shear across Michigan. Models advertise a wave passing within the energetic westerly flow of the upper jet across the northern US. This brings the more appreciable chance at rain and thunderstorms Thursday into Friday, though there are still some details to hash out in regards to the evolution of the event. The end of this forecast period points toward an even greater warming trend and a signal for well above normal temperatures again early next week with highs possible reaching the 90s on Monday. MARINE... Modest northerly flow, generally gusting to around 20kts, continues through the majority of the day today despite high pressure starting to expand over the central Great Lakes. Small craft advisories remain in effect around the Thumb through this evening as higher wave action is drawn into the nearshore waters. Aforementioned high becomes fully established over the Great Lakes tonight leading to dry conditions and light wind through the midweek period. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ421. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ441>443. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....TF DISCUSSION...AA MARINE.......KDK You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.