584
FXUS63 KDTX 132315
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
715 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Morning fog will be possible Saturday and Sunday.

- Seasonably warm and dry conditions prevail today through mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...

Expansive area of high pressure maintains influence this period,
ensuring VFR with cloud free conditions outside of intervals of
cirrus. Position and strength of the high maintains a modest flow
from a southeast to easterly direction. Forecast will continue to
highlight a brief window for MVFR level visibility restrictions in
shallow fog around daybreak.

For DTW/D21 Convection... Thunderstorms are not in the forecast for
the foreseeable future.

 DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024

DISCUSSION...

Rex Block resulting from a H5 591 dam ridge centered over The Soo
and the remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine over the
Mississippi Valley maintains seasonably dry and warm weather into
the weekend. 13.12Z KDTX RAOB and forecast soundings corroborate the
absence of diurnal cumulus this afternoon given large dewpoint
depressions throughout most of the column and strong static
stability. Patches of high cirrus from Francine may lift northward
this evening and mix with a rather dense plume of western CONUS
wildfire smoke aloft which would pose a negligible threat to surface
conditions. Persistence forecast approach lends confidence in some
degree of morning fog Saturday (and possibly Sunday) given the
absence of broader advective processes, thereby supporting repeat
conditions marked by highs in the low-mid 80s and lows in the upper
50s to near 60F with southeast flow generally AOB 15 mph. The
synoptic pattern starts to adjust early next week as the resident
ridge shears/elongates eastward into the Atlantic, post-tropical low
(Francine) dissolves, and the next potential (sub-)tropical
disturbance tries to organize off the Carolina coast. In light of
such a gradual unlock, expect similar conditions Monday and Tuesday
as Lower Michigan resides within a split-flow configuration with H8
temps holding in the mid-teens (Celsius). Regarding the potential
mid-week Mid-Atlantic system, only the 12Z (operational) GFS
solution brings this wave all the way into the Ohio Valley,
suggesting low-end chances for precipitation to brush Southeast
Michigan. However, the 12Z Euro is the latest deterministic model to
corroborate this scenario while some support does exist per select
individual members of the GEFS/EPS/CMCE ensembles.

MARINE...

Northeastern high pressure continues to influence the region through
the first half of next week. This system maintains dry conditions
and generally light flow across the region though some gusts near
20kts will be possible over Lake Erie Saturday as the remnants of
Francine tighten the gradient over the Ohio Valley and far southern
Great Lakes.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...KGK
MARINE.......KDK


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