Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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028 FXUS63 KDVN 182351 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 651 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures continue through Saturday. - Active weather returns to the area Thursday through Monday. - There is a SLGT risk of severe thunderstorms for portions of eastern IA Thursday late afternoon through the evening. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Tonight: One more quiet night ahead with partly cloudy skies with some cirrus clouds. Lows in the mid to upper 50s east to the lower 60s west. Thursday: After about 3 weeks of dry weather the pattern begins to become much more active. We start out with a bang with SPC highlighting portions of eastern IA in a SLGT risk (Level 2 of 5) for portions of eastern IA, with a MRGL risk roughly to the MS River. While isolated showers are possible on Thursday, the bulk of the showers and storms, some severe, will arrive late in the afternoon through the evening. Severe potential: A seasonably strong stacked low in southern Manitoba will send a cold front southeast towards the forecast area. This will pull very warm and increasing humid air into our area with highs in the upper 80s to possibly lower 90s in a couple of spots. Dewpoints will also increase well into the 60s ahead of the front. Models show mid level winds from the west strengthening to 40 kts during the afternoon and evening. Shear/instability will be more than sufficient to support the potential for large hail and damaging winds, with the activity weakening by late evening with the loss of instability. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Active weather continues Friday through Monday with zonal west to east flow across North America. There are two closed 500 MB lows that will bring chances of showers and storms to the area during this time period. The first passes to our north Saturday into Saturday night. The second will lift from the southern High Plains and cross the area Sunday into early next week. Models continue to disagree on the timing and placement of these storms and any interaction between the two late this weekend into early next week. This continues to result in broad brush POPS across the area through the period. This will also result in cooler high temperatures especially Sunday into early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 651 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. There is a low chance, under 20% that showers could impact CID and DBQ in the AM. Showers and storms will be weakening as they approach the area so confidence in timing/occurrence is low. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Haase LONG TERM...Haase AVIATION...Haase