592
FXUS63 KDVN 161119
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
619 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms are possible through the mid
  morning today. Highest coverage is anticipated north of
  Highway 30. Gusty winds and lightning are the primary threats.

- Hot and humid conditions are expected today through Tuesday
  with peak heat indices in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees.
  Monday is forecast to be the hottest day.

- Isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday and Tuesday with
  low areal coverage expected. Better chances for showers and
  storms hold off until Tuesday night into Wednesday as a front
  drops in from the northwest.

- Well above normal temperatures are forecast to continue for
  the middle to end of the week with highs ranging from the mid
  80s in the northwest to low/mid 90s across the central and
  southeast counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Today

Overview: SPC mesoanalysis had broad southwesterly flow aloft
over the Central U.S. with a 500mb vorticity max centered over
central Iowa. This disturbance was collocated with scattered
showers and storms, the eastern fringe of which extends into
portions of Benton and Buchanan Counties. Latest CAMs show an
increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage into early this
morning for areas roughly along/north of I-80 as the
aforementioned shortwave rolls across the region. MUCAPE near
1500 J/kg and 30 kts of deep layer shear could support a few
strong storms with gusts around 40 mph. This activity should
quickly exit to the east after 9 AM.

The main story today will be the heat with forecast high
temperatures in the low to mid 90s, and when combined with the
humidity will create peak afternoon heat indices in the mid to
upper 90s. Will hold off on a Heat Advisory for now as most
locations should fall short of reaching criteria (100 F). An
increasing pressure gradient with a surface low passing across
the northern Great Lakes will lead to breezy southerly winds
locally, gusting up to 30 - 35 mph through the evening hours.

The 06Z HRRR and NAMnest are resolving a MCV currently over NE
Kansas and tracking it across eastern Iowa and northwest
Illinois from late this morning through the afternoon. This
will be a feature to monitor as it could lead to scattered
thunderstorms later today. Low confidence on whether or not we
get storms to develop this afternoon, but if they do form a few
could be strong with MLCAPE peaking between 2000-2500 J/kg.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Early in the Week:

The hot weather continues with forecast highs in the low to mid
90s. The NBM has been consistent with afternoon dewpoints in
the mid 60s to near 70 F, yielding peak heat indices between 95
to the lower 100s. A Heat Advisory may eventually be needed for
Monday and possibly on Tuesday. An increasing surface pressure
gradient between low pressure over the central and northern
Plains and high pressure along the East Coast will lead to
breezy southerly winds of 25 to 35 mph, hopefully providing a
little relief from the heat!

Isolated storms (20%) may pop up during peak daytime heating on
both Monday and Tuesday as SBCIN erodes during the afternoon. A
few of these storms could be strong given the amount of
instability available with SBCAPE of 2000+ J/kg.

Wednesday On:

A pattern change is expected to occur by mid-week, as the
upper-level ridging over the eastern U.S. breaks down, and a
longwave trough develops over the Intermountain West region. As
the trough approaches, an attendant cold front will sweep
through the area around Tuesday night to Wednesday, which will
bring widespread chances (40 to 70%) of showers and storms.
This should bring at least some relative relief to the upcoming
heat and humidity, although high temperatures in the upper 80s
to low/mid 90s remain possible south of Highway 20. A few
additional mid-level shortwaves are expected to overtop the
ridge into our area, so additional chances of precipitation will
be in place through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 610 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Isolated showers and storms are possible near DBQ early this
morning, which could lead to brief MVFR/IFR and gusty winds.
Otherwise, expect prevailing VFR at the terminals into this
afternoon with gusty SSW winds near 25 kts developing early in
the day and lasting through the evening. There is a chance for
scattered showers and storms to redevelop this afternoon for BRL
and MLI as a small area of low pressure tracks across the
region. Mentioned thunder potential in PROB30 groups for now. If
storms develop this afternoon they could produce brief MVFR/IFR,
gusty winds, and heavy downpours.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Record High Temperatures:

June 17:
KBRL: 98/1944
KMLI: 98/1897


Record Warm Minimum Temperatures:

June 17:
KDBQ: 74/1921
KMLI: 78/2018

June 18:
KDBQ: 74/1921
KMLI: 77/2018

June 19:
KDBQ: 76/1931
KMLI: 78/1953

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...Uttech/Schultz
AVIATION...Uttech
CLIMATE...Schultz/Uttech