Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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661 FXUS63 KDVN 171853 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 153 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - High confidence in above normal temperatures continues into Saturday. - There continues to be lower confidence in the timing of rain chances late week into the weekend due to differences between the models. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 153 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Persistence forecasting as high pressure surface and aloft remains anchored across our area. Clear skies are forecast tonight with low temperatures ranging from the lower 50s in far northwest Illinois to the lower 60s in southeast Iowa and northeast Missouri. Expect sunny skies again on Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 153 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 The 500 mb pattern will transition from southwesterly flow aloft as 500 mb ridging over the area finally breaks down allowing for a transition to more zonal flow across the CONUS for late week into early next week. This will usher in more active weather Thursday night into early next week. A shortwave passing to our northwest on Wednesday night into Thursday will allow for increasing clouds on Thursday morning, but think that the best lift and moisture will be well to our northwest leaving the forecast dry. Thursday evening SPC has a Marginal Risk for severe storms (Level 1 of 5) for portions of eastern IA. Late week 500 mb ridging across the Plains begins to break down resulting in amplified zonal flow across the CONUS with a series of shortwave moving across the area Friday night into early next week. However, there are timing and placement differences between the different model runs as well as between the GFS, ECWMF,and Canadian. This is resulting in daily chances of showers and storms through the weekend into early next week. Additionally temperatures cool to near normal by Sunday and Monday with high temperatures in the 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 VFR (SKC) conds through this taf cycle as high pressure was anchored across the area. Mainly southeast winds less than 10 kts through the period. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Haase LONG TERM...Haase AVIATION...Haase