819
FNUS21 KWNS 121643
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Valid 121700Z - 131200Z

...Update...
Isolated dry thunderstorms may develop this afternoon in and around
the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains, and portions of southeastern NM.
These regions will reside along the eastern periphery of a mid-level
ridge axis. Subtle ascent via moist upslope flow and convergence
along quasi-dryline should aid in this development, where modest
mid-level moisture atop a deeply mixed lower troposphere will exist.
Storm motions near 25 kt should also increase the potential for dry
strikes. Otherwise, the forecast remains unchanged. Please see the
previous discussion for details regarding the Great Basin region.

..Barnes.. 06/12/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024/

...Synopsis...
Between a midlevel ridge centered over eastern AZ/western NM and a
closed midlevel low off the southern CA coast, a belt of moderate
southerly flow will overspread portions of the Desert Southwest into
the southern Great Basin. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the
moderate flow aloft will favor locally breezy/gusty
south-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit to lower-teens
RH. As a result, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are
possible over northern AZ, southwestern UT, and southern NV, given
increasingly dry fuels. However, a modest surface pressure gradient
and marginal surface winds limit confidence in an appreciable
fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$