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Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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208 ACUS01 KWNS 170038 SWODY1 SPC AC 170037 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase across the central High Plains this evening. Severe threat will spread downstream into the upper Mississippi Valley later tonight. Hail is the primary risk. ...01z Update... Broad upper troughing continues across the western US, especially north of the Great Basin. Weak height falls are forecast to spread across the central Rockies into the central Plains; however, water-vapor imagery does not depict any meaningful disturbances approaching this portion of the Plains early this evening. Even so, LLJ is expected to increase across the central High Plains over the next few hours, focusing from western KS into central NE. Nocturnal increase in the jet may be the primary instigator in convective development this evening. 00z sounding from LBF exhibited substantial MUCAPE (>3000 J/kg) if lifting a parcel near 750mb. Saturation has not yet materialized at this level and parcels remain a bit inhibited. However, moisture should advect atop the stalled surface boundary and elevated robust thunderstorms are expected to evolve. Given the steep lapse rates, hail is expected to generated with the stronger updrafts. Thunderstorms that develop along the nose of the LLJ should grow upscale in coverage then spread downstream, possibly in the form of one or more MCSs. ..Darrow.. 06/17/2024 $$