Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
756 ACUS01 KWNS 150121 SWODY1 SPC AC 150119 Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0819 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR FLIPPED THUNDER LINE ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible this evening over parts of the central and northern Plains. ...Central and Northern Plains... The latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over the Dakotas extending southward into northern Nebraska. Along this corridor, the RAP has a two distinct vorticity maxima analyzed. At the surface, a trough is located in the northern High Plains, and a moist airmass is present over much of the central and northern Plains. Surface dewpoints within this moist airmass vary from the mid 50s to mid 60s F. The RAP suggests that moderate instability is present from west-central Nebraska into parts of the Dakotas, where isolated to scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. The North Platte 00Z sounding has the best severe environment regionally, with MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg, and 0-3 km shear around 35 knots. On this sounding, the average low to mid-level lapse rate is near 7.5 C/km. This, along with instability and shear suggest that a marginal severe threat will likely continue for a few more hours. Isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible with rotating cells. The threat is expected to diminish during the mid to late evening as instability decreases across the region. ..Broyles.. 09/15/2024 $$