Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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242 ACUS01 KWNS 210100 SWODY1 SPC AC 210059 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from the central High Plains to parts of the Upper Midwest. The greatest concentration of tornadoes, large hail, and severe wind is expected over northeast Colorado into southern Nebraska, and far northwest Kansas. This will include potential for a strong tornado, very large hail, and significant severe gusts. ...01Z Update... Primary concern is with ongoing convection developing across northeast CO into the southwest NE Panhandle. With a current of east to southeast 0-1 km winds expected to increase during the next few hours, afternoon CAM guidance along with recent WoFS runs are insistent on long-lived supercell development along the southern flank of the thunderstorm plume. This appears likely to emanate out of the Akron, CO vicinity and move east towards the CO/KS/NE border area. With low 60s surface dew points across northwest KS marking the northwest extent of MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg, a supercell or two impinging on the increasingly buoyant airmass downstream, may become intense. In addition to the risk for very large hail, enlarging low-level hodographs will support potential for cyclic tornadogenesis, especially in the 02-05Z time frame. Transition from tornadic supercell to a bow will likely occur during the late evening to early morning, with probable movement along the pronounced MLCAPE gradient into at least south-central NE. Increasingly large MLCIN is anticipated overnight across KS, suggesting that the severe wind swath will remain latitudinally confined. Downstream convection, ongoing across southeast NE, suggests the upstream severe wind threat may wane somewhat near dawn as the MCS approaches the Mid-MO Valley. But the potential for a well-organized MCS to persist across much of southern NE is apparent and warrants expansion of the level 3-ENH risk. Elsewhere, scattered large hail and sporadic severe wind gusts should occur this evening into the early overnight from southeast NE to southeast MN. A lower-end QLCS across Lower MI into northwest IN may produce locally damaging winds with strong gusts through the rest of this evening. But this convection will likely diminish overnight. ..Grams.. 05/21/2024 $$