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Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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320 ACUS01 KWNS 260101 SWODY1 SPC AC 260100 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN IOWA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND MUCH OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of thunderstorms may evolve this evening, and perhaps consolidate into an organizing system with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight across parts of southern Nebraska and northern Kansas through northern and central Missouri. ...01Z Update... A weak surface front/differential heating zone, beneath a suppressed plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West, has become a focus for scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development. This currently extends east-southeast of the Black Hills through north central/northeastern Nebraska and southern Iowa. Near the southern fringe of mid-level height falls associated with a short wave trough, forecast to dig through the northern Great Plains and middle Missouri Valley region overnight, it appears that this boundary will advance through the lower Missouri Valley and adjacent portions of the central Great Plains. Models suggest that the front will be reinforced by strengthening convective outflow associated with a considerable further increase in thunderstorm development, beneath modestly sheared west-northwesterly mid-level flow. South of the front, a seasonably moist and strongly heated boundary layer is still characterized by large CAPE (up to 4000 J/kg), beneath warm thermodynamic profiles with steep mid-level lapse rates. Inflow of this air may support upscale growing and consolidating clusters with potential to become well organized and accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts. This could include one or two developing swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2024 $$