711
ACUS02 KWNS 081755
SWODY2
SPC AC 081753

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES...

CORRECTED GRAPHICS

...SUMMARY...
Strong/locally severe storms capable of producing damaging wind
gusts and some hail, are expected from the Ozarks vicinity eastward
across the Tennessee Valley/Southeast.  Isolated severe storms with
severe gusts and hail, will also be possibe across portions of the
central High Plains/southern Plains.  Isolated strong/damaging gusts
may also occur over parts of the northern Intermountain region and
northern High Plains.

...Mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and surrounding areas...
Thunderstorms -- in the form of one or more convective clusters --
will likely be ongoing at the start of the period, moving
southeastward across the Ozarks vicinity, and possibly eastward into
parts of Kentucky and Tennessee.  This convection may be accompanied
by lingering/local risk for strong/damaging wind gusts.

As the moist low-level airmass along and south of the west-to-east,
convectively reinforced surface boundary heats/destabilizes through
the afternoon, reinvigoration or redevelopment of storms near the
front and potentially an MCV from prior convection is expected to
occur.  With 40 to 50 kt west-northwesterly mid-level flow across
the Mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valley area, storms should
organize -- potentially growing upscale into
east-southeastward-moving clusters, and potentially small-scale
bows.  Along with local risk for marginal hail, locally damaging
gusts would likely accompany this convection.  As evolution of Day 1
convection, and the associated location of the convectively
reinforced boundary becomes a bit more clear, upgrade to SLGT risk
across portions of the Tennessee Valley vicinity will likely be
needed in subsequent outlooks.  Meanwhile, MRGL risk appears
warranted as far east as the Carolinas, as isolated late-day storms
could develop near the boundary, followed by weakening storms
spreading eastward overnight from the Tennessee Valley/southern
Appalachians -- potentially reaching the coast by the end of the
period.

...Northern Intermountain Region/northern High Plains...
As a weak mid-level short-wave trough shifts east-northeastward from
the Pacific Northwest across the Montana vicinity Sunday, modest
diurnal destabilization will likely support isolated/afternoon storm
development from roughly Idaho to the northern High Plains.
Moderate mid-level southwesterly/westerly flow may support a few
stronger updrafts, while a dry sub-cloud layer enhances potential
for evaporatively enhanced downdrafts.  As such, MRGL risk for
gusty/damaging winds is being expanded across this region.

Southeasterly low-level flow expected across the northern High
Plains may support slightly greater storm coverage from parts of
southeastern Montana southward into eastern Wyoming, but at this
time, will maintain only 5% probability for hail/wind in this area,
with storms likely to dissipate nocturnally during the evening
hours.

...Central High Plains southeastward into central Texas...
As short-wave troughing shifts east-northeastward into the central
and southern High Plains area through the day, daytime
heating/destabilization is expected to support widely scattered
thunderstorm development over a broad area.  Isolated Colorado Front
Range to Raton Mesa storms are expected to evolve, along with other
storm clusters along a weak surface front from Oklahoma
west-southwestward to the Permian Basin.  Relatively modest
deep-layer shear is expected across this area, and thus mainly
multicell organization is anticipated.  Still, locally
gusty/damaging winds and marginal hail may occur across the area
through the afternoon and evening hours.

..Goss.. 06/08/2024

$$