353
ACUS02 KWNS 270616
SWODY2
SPC AC 270614

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST
CO...MUCH OF NE/KS/IA...NORTHERN MO...SOUTHERN MN...

CORRECTED FOR HAIL GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms may develop from parts of the central Plains
into parts of the upper Midwest and upper Mississippi Valley on
Friday. Large hail, damaging wind, and a couple tornadoes will be
possible.

...Central/northern Plains into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
A mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across the northern
Great Plains into the upper Great Lakes region on Friday into Friday
night. In conjunction with the shortwave, a surface low will move
eastward across the Dakotas into MN, with secondary low development
possible across the central Plains. A warm front is forecast to move
northward across the mid/upper MS Valley, while a cold front will
move through the northern/central Plains into MN through the day and
into the evening.

Elevated convection may be ongoing at the start of the
period, within a warm-advection regime. In the wake of the morning
convection, moderate to locally strong destabilization will be
possible in the vicinity of the cold front and a possible outflow
boundary across parts of NE/IA into northeast KS/northwest MO, with
somewhat more modest destabilization along the northward extension
of the front into parts of MN.

Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection across
the region. Storm evolution during the afternoon/evening remains
somewhat uncertain, but development of a few supercells and/or
stronger clusters will be possible near the front from eastern
NE/northeast KS into southern MN/western IA/northwest MO. Hail and
damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms across the
warm sector. In addition, some tornado threat may evolve with any
sustained supercell, especially from southeast NE/eastern KS into
northwest MO/southwest IA, where buoyancy may be maximized, and
low-level shear/SRH will be somewhat enhanced into the evening.

Farther west, organized storms may also develop near and north of
the front across the central High Plains. Initial supercell
development will be possible from northeast CO into southwest
NE/northwest KS, with a threat of hail and localized severe gusts.
Some upscale growth into multiple clusters or a small MCS may occur
with time, which could pose at least a localized threat of
significant severe gusts.

The Slight Risk has been expanded to cover the scenarios described
above, though some uncertainty remains regarding storm evolution
through the period.

..Dean.. 06/27/2024

$$