501
ACUS02 KWNS 211723
SWODY2
SPC AC 211721

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS
TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from west Texas
to central/southern Missouri.

...Synopsis...
A filling mid-level low will move toward the central High Plains on
Sunday afternoon/evening. Moderate mid-level flow will maintain
southeast of this low and overspread the Oklahoma/southern Kansas
vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will extend from southern
Michigan across Illinois and Missouri and into Oklahoma and Texas.

...Southern Missouri across Oklahoma and into West Texas...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along and ahead of the surface
front across the TX Panhandle and into Oklahoma and from central
Kansas, across Missouri, and to southern Illinois Sunday morning. A
seasonally moist airmass featuring upper 60s to perhaps low 70s
dewpoints will exist ahead of the surface front Sunday
afternoon/evening. Surface heating ahead of the front should result
in moderate instability amid a marginally sheared airmass. A few
stronger/organized storms are possible with a primary threat of
damaging wind gusts, especially where any clustering or line
segments can develop. Some large hail is also possible, where a few
supercells are possible across northwest Texas and West Texas.

The severe threat will be primarily diurnally driven with minimal
severe concerns after 1-3 UTC.

..Bentley.. 09/21/2024

$$