325
ACUS02 KWNS 141738
SWODY2
SPC AC 141736

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and
evening across portions of the central Plains to Upper Midwest.
Isolated damaging gusts are also possible over parts of the northern
Great Basin.

...Central/Northern Plains to the upper Midwest...
A positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to eject eastward with
several weaker leading disturbances located across the northern
Rockies Tuesday. Coincident with increasing mid/upper westerly flow,
height falls and weak ascent will support the development of a
surface low over western SD. This low will move into southern MN by
Wednesday morning, while a cold front will sag southward across MT,
the Dakotas and northern MN.

South of the front and surface low, a seasonably warm/humid air mass
will be in place near the triple point across NE and eastern SD,
extending northward along the front into the upper Midwest. Moderate
to strong destabilization (2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE), and ascent from
the approaching upper troughs will promote scattered strong to
severe storms by the afternoon. Vertical shear around 25-35 kt will
support a mix of cells and clusters capable of damaging gusts and
hail.

A fairly quick transition to upscale growth is likely Tuesday
evening given the large buoyancy and weaker low-level flow allowing
for consolidation of outflow. Most CAM solutions show eventual MCS
development across central/southeast NE into the overnight hours.
Aided by a 40+ kt southerly low-level jet, this MCS could continue
into parts of western IA and northern KS with a risk for damaging
gusts through 12z.

Farther northeast along the front, veered low-level flow and largely
unidirectional wind profiles should favor a predominately linear
storm mode. One or more clusters may emerge primarily with a risk
for damaging gusts and hail as they moving from MN to northern WI
and western upper MI by Tuesday evening. Locally stronger flow aloft
and near the front could also support a brief tornado or two.

Isolated hail and damaging gusts will also be possible in the
post-frontal upslope flow regime across northern and eastern WY into
western SD. Enhanced mid-level flow and 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE
could support a few supercells or stronger clusters near and along
the front.

...Eastern Great Basin...
As the cold front gradually moves south, it should begin to stall
across the northern Great basin Tuesday afternoon. As forcing for
ascent from the upper trough interacts with strong diurnal heating,
scattered thunderstorm are expected along the front and adjacent
higher terrain from northeast NV, through northern UT and into
southwestern WY. Weak to moderate SBCAPE atop deep inverted-V
structures will favor strong downdrafts with these high-based
storms. Damaging gust potential will be maximized along the front
where locally stronger convergence and deep-layer shear should
support a larger concentration and greater persistence of
strong/occasionally severe storm clusters.

...Mid MS Valley...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms remain likely with several
convectively augmented vort maxima/MCVs currently observed across
central/northeast TX. While less defined than previous guidance
cycles, locally stronger forcing for ascent and enhanced
low/mid-level flow could support one or more clusters of strong to
occasional severe storm Tuesday afternoon across the Mid MS Valley.
These clusters will develop within a very warm/unstable air mass
with the potential for occasional damaging gusts from heavily
water-loaded downdrafts. As mentioned in the prior outlook,
confidence in the ultimate location of theses features as well as
the resulting storm coverage/intensity remains too low to introduce
higher severe probabilities.

...Southern AZ...
Weak easterly flow and seasonably high monsoon moisture south of the
upper ridge are expected to support scattered thunderstorms across
parts of southern AZ Tuesday afternoon and evening. While steering
flow is not overly strong, some enhancement of the mid-level
easterlies could promote slightly more organized storm clusters
capable of damaging gusts given the deeply mixed PBL.

...Southeast and FL...
A weak tropical wave will likely serve as a focus for numerous
thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night across parts of FL and the
Gulf Coast. A warm, unstable and humid air mass will support
numerous thunderstorm clusters over a broad area capable of sporadic
damaging downbursts through much of the day. Locally higher severe
probabilities will be greatest along sea breeze boundaries and near
the upper vort max. However, confidence in more than occasional
severe potential is low.

..Lyons.. 07/14/2025

$$