841
ACUS02 KWNS 091734
SWODY2
SPC AC 091732

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be
possible on Monday in parts of the central and northern High Plains.
Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible in parts of the
southern High Plains, and portions of the Southeast.

...Northern and central High Plains...
A mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to advance eastward across
the northern Intermountain Region Monday, allowing surface lee
troughing to persist over the northern High Plains.  As an axis of
modest (50s dewpoints) low-level moisture advects northward ahead of
this upper system, near and ahead of the surface trough, daytime
heating will permit 1000 to 2000 J/kg CAPE to develop during the
afternoon.

Ascent associated with the advancing upper system and associated
surface trough, combined with the destabilizing environment, will
result in development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms --
perhaps initially near the higher terrain of northern and central
Wyoming, but more robustly thereafter nearer the surface trough.

As a belt of enhanced (around 40 kt) westerly mid-level flow spreads
atop the region, beneath low-level southerlies, shear sufficient for
organized/rotating storms suggests potential for supercells
initially, along with attendant risks for locally damaging wind
gusts and hail.  Some upscale growth of storms is expected by
evening, as congealing of cold pools occurs, and storms shift
east-southeastward off the higher terrain.  Severe potential --
increasingly in the form of locally damaging gusts -- will likewise
spread eastward, before storms begin to diminish in tandem with
nocturnal stabilization of the boundary layer.

...Southern High Plains...
A weak upper low forecast to drift across the southern Rockies area,
while afternoon heating leads to a destabilizing airmass across the
southern High Plains region and vicinity, will lead to development
of afternoon thunderstorms across the area.  While shear will remain
generally weak across most of the area, and thus storms generally
disorganized, some enhancement of northwesterly mid-level flow on
the southwest side of the low will spread southeastward out of
central New Mexico and into Far West Texas through the afternoon and
evening.  As such, a small zone of greater severe risk could evolve
across parts of the South Plains region and adjacent Permian
Basin/Transpecos areas of Texas during the late afternoon and early
evening hours.  Indeed, a few CAMs suggest some upscale growth of
storms into a southeastward-moving MCS -- which could yield somewhat
greater potential for strong wind gusts.  At this time, will refrain
from a SLGT risk upgrade, due to uncertainty regarding this
scenario.

...Parts of the Southeast...
As a cold front sags southward across the Southeast, and becomes
situated from the South Carolina Coast westward to the central Gulf
coast, heating of the moist boundary layer near and south of the
front should result in widely scattered storm development, focused
along the frontal zone.  With rather weak low-level flow but some
enhancement of the mid-level westerlies atop the front, a few
stronger storms -- capable of producing marginal hail and/or locally
damaging gusts -- are expected during the afternoon hours, before
storms weaken after dark.

..Goss.. 06/09/2024

$$