700
ACUS02 KWNS 221729
SWODY2
SPC AC 221727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
OZARKS INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks
into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A broad, positively-tilted trough will slowly progress eastward
through the central Plains and into the Ozarks/lower Ohio Valley
vicinity by Tuesday morning. A belt of moderate mid-level flow will
stretch from near the Red River into Tennessee, Kentucky, and
southern Illinois/Indiana. Given the nature of the trough, a rather
weak surface pattern is expected. However, a cold front is expected
to reside from the southern Great Lakes region into the Ozarks with
a weak surface low in the  Mid-South making some northward progress
during the period. To the south of the front, a moist airmass should
remain in place with mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints.

...Ozarks Vicinity...
Cloud cover and precipitation will likely be present Monday morning.
The degree of destabilization during the afternoon will be
uncertain. Model guidance has some confidence in heating into parts
of central Arkansas, but the northern extent of stronger heating is
the primary question. With the cold front taking on a more
north-south orientation in this region, 35-45 kts of effective shear
across the boundary could promote a more discrete storm mode. Should
sufficient destabilization occur, isolated large hail and damaging
winds would be possible. Poor mid-level lapse rates should tend to
limit overall intensity of most storms.

...Portions of Tennessee/lower Ohio Valleys...
As with areas farther west, there will be some potential for
precipitation and cloud cover Monday morning, especially with
northern extent. South of the surface boundary, at least broken
cloud cover should allow for sufficient heating to promote around
1500 J/kg MLCAPE by the afternoon. 40-50 kts of shear parallel to
the boundary will allow some potential for storm organization.
Damaging winds would likely be the primary threat, though isolated
large hail is possible in the strongest, discrete storms.

As the trough moves east and the surface boundary slowly lifts
northward into Tuesday morning, some stronger elevated activity
could move into southern Illinois/Indiana during the overnight.
There is spread in how far north the boundary moves and the degree
of elevated buoyancy, but some potential for small to marginally
severe hail and an isolated damaging wind gust will exist.

..Wendt.. 09/22/2024

$$