074
ACUS03 KWNS 160722
SWODY3
SPC AC 160721

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER MUCH
OF MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon
over parts of the upper Mississippi Valley southwestward toward the
middle Missouri Valley, or roughly from eastern Nebraska into
Minnesota.

...Synopsis...
On Tuesday, an upper trough will move eastward across the northern
Plains, then northeastward from the upper MS Valley into Ontario as
it impinges upon the upper ridge. Low pressure will move from ND
across northern MN and into western Ontario through 00Z, with a cold
front trailing southwestward across eastern NE and into
central/southwest KS. Southerly flow around the eastern ridge
maintain a moist air mass with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints common
over a very large region south of the cold front.

...Upper MS Valley into middle MO Valley...
Early day storms are forecast to quickly exit the ND/northern MN
region as the warm front pushes north into Canada. Thereafter,
modest heating along with the moist air mass, combined with minimal
cooling aloft, will yield 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE ahead of the front,
where midlevel winds will be roughly parallel to the boundary. This
may support a few linear structures moving quickly northeastward
with the mean flow, and producing locally damaging gusts and
marginal hail.

Farther south along the front and into the central Plains, isolated
strong storms are expected as low-level lapse rates will be steep
from NM into southwest KS. Forecast soundings in this area show
marginal shear but probably enough veering with height to support
slow-moving cells capable of locally large hail or gusty winds.

..Jewell.. 06/16/2024

$$