067
ACUS03 KWNS 250726
SWODY3
SPC AC 250725

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MT
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTHEAST WY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Montana into the
western Dakotas on Thursday. Isolated strong to severe storms are
also possible across the central Plains.

...Northern Rockies into the northern/central High Plains...
A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to
move from the Northwest across the northern Rockies during the day
on Thursday, and into northern High Plains by Thursday night. A
surface low is forecast to deepen across southeast MT during the
day, and then move east-southeastward toward western/central SD.
Low-level southeasterly flow will support moisture return into
eastern MT and the western Dakotas.

Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop by late afternoon
across the western Dakotas into eastern MT, with at least modest
destabilization possible farther west into central MT. Storm
coverage is expected to increase across parts of western/central MT
through the day, with development possible within the more-unstable
environment across eastern MT and the western Dakotas by late
afternoon into early evening. Increasing mid/upper-level flow will
support sufficient effective shear for organized convection,
including the potential for a few supercells. Large hail and
strong/severe gusts will be possible, along with some threat for a
tornado or two. Some upscale growth may occur during the evening,
with at least an isolated severe threat potentially persisting
Thursday night as storms move eastward across the Dakotas.

...Central Plains...
Elevated convection and possibly a remnant MCS may be ongoing
Thursday morning across parts of the central Plains. In the wake of
the morning convection, a surface boundary is expected to move
northeastward as a warm front, aided by a moderate southerly
low-level jet. At least isolated storm development will be possible
during the afternoon near the warm front, and also farther west near
a diffuse dryline. Midlevel flow will be weaker with southward
extent, but deep-layer shear will still be sufficient for some storm
organization within a moderately buoyant environment. A mixture of
cells and clusters is expected, including potential for a couple
supercells. With rather warm temperatures aloft, hail potential
could be limited to some extent, but at least isolated hail may
occur, along with strong to severe gusts. Some tornado threat could
also evolve with any supercell near the effective warm front.

...Carolinas into Georgia...
Moderate destabilization is forecast Thursday along/ahead of a cold
front that is currently expected to be draped from south GA into
parts of the Carolinas. A weak upper-level trough is expected to be
in place over the region, and scattered thunderstorms may develop
during the afternoon into the early evening. Depending on trends
regarding the frontal position and strength of mid/upper-level flow
over the region, severe probabilities may eventually be needed.

..Dean.. 06/25/2024

$$