Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
365 ACUS03 KWNS 200717 SWODY3 SPC AC 200716 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible from the upper Mississippi Valley toward upper Michigan on Saturday. Damaging wind, hail and isolated tornado potential may develop. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Model differences remain for Saturday in regard to the shortwave trough forecast to move across the northern Plains and toward the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes. However, there appears to be enough potential to introduce a Slight Risk. A surface low is forecast to deepen from SD into northern MN, with a warm front will lifting north ahead of the low across MN and WI during the day, and strengthening southwest 850 flow up to 50 kt. Early day storms are likely in the warm advection regime from MN into WI, with destabilization occurring behind this activity and east of a cold pushing east across MN and IA. Moderate instability and deep layer shear near the low and along the warm front would favor supercells, with tornado and hail potential. Any bowing storms may product damaging winds. Farther south, moderate instability may develop along the front into eastern KS and MO. Given the deep-layer shear orientation, southeastward moving cells capable of hail will be possible. ..Jewell.. 06/20/2024 $$