Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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621 FXUS63 KEAX 161919 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 219 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and humid conditions will persist through the week. Overnight lows in the KC Metro may struggle to get below 75 F each night/morning and afternoon temps will hover in the lower 90s with heat index values in the upper 90s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 218 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Through 2 PM CDT, the MCV that churned across the region this morning continues to lift northeast across southeast Iowa, with any remaining precip already exiting our area along with it. Surface analysis reveals a weak surface trough from southeast Colorado into Iowa and Minnesota. In response, south-southwest winds have increased this afternoon, gusting around 20 to 25 mph. Cloud cover has held temps back a touch, but with persistent WAA, temperatures this afternoon continue to trend a few degrees above normal across the area, in the upper 80s for many. Mid-level WV reveals the broad ridge holding over the eastern CONUS, with troughing to the west. Short to mid-range guidance persists with this trend through Tuesday and Wednesday, with a short wave trough lifting across the northern Plains Tuesday into Wednesday, increased forcing for ascent will develop along the surface pressure gradient across the Plains into the upper Great Lakes. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase along this corridor, just skirting northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri through Thursday. Temperatures will remain the primary focus for the next few days as clouds are expected to clear out through tomorrow and WAA continues to bring hot and humid air through the boundary layer. Highs will reach the lower 90s with afternoon heat index values in the mid to upper 90s. These temps will persist through the week. The real concern is the overnight lows, especially for the KC Metro area. Overnight lows will struggle to dip below 75 F every night/morning. This persists through the end of the work week and we`ll need to look at the potential for a heat advisory just for overnight lows remaining warm. Will let the Monday day shift take a closer look and see how trends persist before making a decision. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 VFR conditions prevail with broken to scattered cloud coverage lingering over most TAF sites through the afternoon and evening hours. Skies will start to clear around 01Z-02Z, with cloud coverage expected to decrease at STJ first. Winds will be predominantly out of the south-southwest at 15-20 knots, possibly gusting over 25 knots in some instances. Winds will relax after 00Z before gusts return by 13-14Z Monday morning. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kurtz AVIATION...Hayes