Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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178 FXUS63 KEAX 170709 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 209 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and humid conditions expected the next several days with highs in the mid 90s each day with heat indices approaching 100. Overnight lows may remain above 75 in the KC Metro. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 206 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Hot and humid conditions will continue to be the story of the next several days. Currently a mid level ridge is situated over the eastern US with troughing over the west. At the surface, we also see broad high pressure situated to our east allowing for winds to remain southerly, drawing in warm and moist air. Today we can expect highs reaching the low to mid 90s across the forecast area with heat indices reaching 97-100 degrees. Additionally southerly winds may be a bit gusty through the afternoon with gusts up to 25-35 mph possible. Tuesday can expect very similar conditions with highs reaching the low to mid 90s and heat indices in the upper 90s to near 100. On Tuesday night into Wednesday, a shortwave trough progresses through the flow to our north allowing for increasing shower and thunderstorms potential across our north as a frontal boundary drifts south toward our area. Rainfall and thunderstorms will be possible for some during the day Wednesday, but unfortunately it will provide little in the way of relief from the warm temperatures. While these temperatures are certainly above average for mid June, we are unlikely to meet any heat advisory criteria at this point. Thankfully dewpoints should remain below 70 degrees each day, meaning the heat index values will struggle to be much over 100 any day. Despite this, minor concerns exist for vulnerable populations, especially across the Kansas City Metro, where overnight lows will likely not fall below 75 for the next several nights, providing little in the way of relief. For the second half of the week there remains some uncertainty in precipitation chances, but at this point it looks to be mainly dry for the majority of the area. Temperatures will return to a warming trend for the end of the week into the weekend. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s each day. Heat indices look to remain below 100 through this time. Rainfall may return over the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1053 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 VFR conditions are expected to last for the duration of the TAF period. Winds will come out of the south and be breezy starting late tomorrow morning. Occasional wind gusts as high as 30 mph are possible through the day. Winds are expected to weaken towards the evening. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...HB AVIATION...Collier